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Economists have long subdivided their discipline into two branches: positive economics and welfare economics. Positive economics aims to be scientifically descriptive (what is) and predictive (what will be) of objective facts. While positive economics emphasizes a purely scientific methodology, whether any social scientist can be truly unbiased with respect to facts or values is open to serious question. This approach to economics invokes the positivism associated with the French sociologist Auguste Comte (1798–1857). Comte advocated the application to social studies of the methodology of observation and experimentation then developing in the natural sciences (e.g., physics and chemistry). For Comte, positivism was the third and final stage of human reasoning, succeeding the previous metaphysical and theological stages for explaining causality (i.e., why reality is the way it is). The positive economist functions as a scientist studying phenomena; but human behavior is not necessarily subject to something analogous to the fixed physical laws of nature. This purely scientific approach to human behavior applies often unrealistic assumptions to predict long-term outcomes such as unemployment trends or equilibrium between supply and demand and neglects to include descriptive measures of the short-term consequences borne by real people, who may suffer unemployment or shortages of housing and health care. The purely scientific approach deliberately eschews subjective value judgments, regarded as strictly the province of welfare economics. Positive economics is thus unable to address ethical dilemmas. These two limitations of positive economics are addressed below.

The is-ought Distinction in Economics

The two branches of economics closely parallel the isought (or descriptive-normative) distinction in ethics. This fact-value distinction is of long standing in economic literature. Positive economics came from a conscious decision to simplify the problem of economic analysis. The social and moral sciences deal with very complex considerations. To enable more rapid progress of knowledge, social scientists in the 19th century decided to divide the scope of political economy (as economics was then called) into two branches with different methodologies. A normative branch would focus on policy making for a moral society and public welfare. A separate, positive science would describe the workings of the economic system as it is.

Positive economics adopts a strongly consequentialist perspective in the spirit of utilitarianism. This orientation can be illustrated by examples at the microeconomic and macroeconomic levels of analysis. Microeconomics studies choices by individuals, households, firms, and governments. At the microeconomic level of analysis, positive economics describes and predicts, for example, how changes in specific prices or taxes will affect human choices. A regressive tax affects less wealthy households more than it affects wealthier households. A positive analysis might conclude that a regressive tax is relatively efficient or inefficient in acquiring private resources for public activities. Positive economics studies the causes and effects of horizontal mergers among producers in markets for goods and services. A positive analysis might conclude that a specific horizontal merger will reduce consumer welfare. A positive analysis might conclude that the global expansion of Wal-Mart increases the welfare of consumers and investors while decreasing the welfare of its employees, suppliers, and competitors.

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