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Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) was a hedge fund founded in 1994 by John Meriwether. Meriwether was a well-known bond trader and the former vice chairman at Salomon Brothers. After leaving the firm in 1991 following its Treasury bond scandal, he assembled a group of LTCM principals who were both academics and noted traders. Two such academicians, Myron Scholes and Robert C. Merton, were top economic theorists. In 1997, Scholes and Merton received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics for their work in stock options. LTCM began trading after it had received minimum investments from 80 initial investors, approximately $1.3 billion of investor capital. The fund experienced unprecedented growth, with returns as high as 40%, until its demise in 1998.

LTCM used complex quantitative models to determine the timing and estimated return of domestic and foreign bond trades. Also called convergence trades, LTCM sought bonds that were not priced accurately relative to one another. Each transaction realized a very small profit, so LTCM significantly leveraged its trades to make a profit. It would conduct a series of financial transactions that purchased lower priced bonds with long positions while selling short the more expensive, liquid bonds. LTCM used this arbitrage technique to achieve aggressive rates of return.

The Demise of LTCM

At the beginning of 1998, LTCM had equity of $5.0 billion and assets of approximately $129 billion, and it had borrowed $125 billion. In May and June of 1998, LTCM's net returns fell to −6.42% and −10.14%, respectively, reducing its capital by $461 million. In addition, Salomon Brothers, a large stakeholder in LTCM, withdrew from the arbitrage business in July 1998. When the Russian government defaulted on its government bonds in August and September that same year, investors began to panic. By the end of August, the fund had lost $1.85 billion in capital. As a result, LTCM and its investors experienced a “flight to liquidity.” In an attempt to transfer assets from a risky market into more secure instruments, they began to purchase U.S. treasury bonds. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York organized a bailout of $3.5 billion to avoid a collapse of the entire financial market. The total losses were estimated at $4.6 billion.

Conclusion

LTCM was responsible for one of the biggest financial disasters of its kind. The founders began amassing investors without thoroughly testing their investment practices in actual market conditions. Liquidity issues were immense, to the extent that without a bailout of some sort, a systemic market crisis affecting all investors would have resulted. The societal implications would have been significant. Before opening the fund to investors, LTCM had an ethical obligation to business and society to test its theories in the markets and to more accurately estimate the liquidity, leverage, and volatility risks.

  • long-term capital management
Pamela C.Jones

Further Readings

BancWare ERisk Report. (2006).Case study: LTCM—Long- Term Capital Management. Retrieved October 17, 2006, from http://www.erisk.com/Learning/CaseStudies/LongTermCapitalManagemen.asp
Lowenstein, R.(2000).The rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management: When genius failed. New York: Random House.
U.S. General Accounting Office. (1999, October).Report to

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