Graunt, John (1620–1674)

John Graunt was a storekeeper from London, England, who is credited with being the founding father of the science of vital statistics. Before Graunt's time, public health surveillance was unprecedented, and no method was available to quantify disease patterns in the population. Graunt provided a statistical and analytical approach to examine the population's health status. He collected data from the Bills of Mortality to study the disease patterns in London. The Bills of Mortality were documents that were published weekly by the London parishes and offered information on the number of births, deaths, and cause of death in each parish.

The Bills of Mortality were an untapped data source for Graunt, who was able to organize the data to compile mortality tables, allowing him to compare the trends in mortality and natality by the season, year, and geographic area. On the basis of his work, he published a book in 1662 entitled Natural and Political Observations Mentioned in a Following Index and Made Upon the Bills of Mortality. This 79-page book provided the first example of descriptive statistics. For example, Graunt was able to determine the number of deaths due to acute or chronic illnesses, the number of maternal deaths during childbirth, and the number of deaths from the plague. He scrutinized the data available and reported on problems with disease classification, reporting bias with regard to some diseases such as syphilis, irregular data collection intervals, and other inconsistencies in data collection and reporting.

Graunt's work was important to public health because he developed principles of epidemiology and demography. He made inroads by discovering patterns of disease and was able to identify diseases afflicting a geographic area or gender. He described and quantified disease occurrence in London at that time, and although he was not trained in mathematics, he was able to interpret the statistics. Graunt reported that more boys were born than girls, women had a longer life expectancy than men, the ratio of boys to girls was stable over time, mortality rates were [Page 447]highest among infants and older adults, and death rates were higher in urban than in rural areas. He also identified variation in mortality rates by season and year and calculated the population of London at the time.

Graunt was also a councilman and politician. He served as a member of the Common Council of London. More important, Graunt was also a member of the Royal Society. King Charles II was so much in awe of Graunt's work that he recommended Graunt for membership in the newly created Royal Society, which was a forum for the nation's leading scientists. Many of the scientists at the time were opposed to Graunt's membership because Graunt did not have a formal education. However, King Charles overruled the objections, allowing Graunt to become a Fellow of the Royal Society. Graunt died of jaundice at the age of 53.