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Error happens. Scales are set incorrectly. Memories fade. Study participants try to give the ‘right’ answer. When these mistakes are systematic, that is, not random, they will likely cause a biased result. The term bias can be translated fairly as ‘wrong’ with the additional refinement of ‘wrong due to systematic error.’ Thus, in the general statistical and scientific languages, a biased estimate is an incorrect estimate. In epidemiology, biased estimates typically refer to the distortion of a measure of association between exposure and outcome. This entry describes these measures, including the rate ratio, relative risk, attributable risk, and odds ratio.

The following examples will help illustrate bias. Underestimation would be caused by a scale that always weighs people 10 lb less than their true weight. A survey with leading questions (e.g., ‘Do you believe that smoking is bad?’) may draw the desired answers more frequently than the study population actually believes. Study participants with a condition linked to the research may be more likely to follow study procedures or be available for follow-up than participants without the condition.

Causes of biased estimates in epidemiologic studies are generally categorized as selection bias and information bias. Selection bias refers to ways an estimate may be incorrect due to how participants were enrolled in a study or dropped out of a study (e.g., lost to follow-up). Information bias refers to ways an estimate may be incorrect due to measures made during the study. More than 100 terms for information bias exist, many with similar or overlapping meaning. This entry describes common forms of bias that affect estimates in epidemiologic studies. Confounding can also bias measures of association and is discussed in a separate entry.

Selection Bias

To put selection bias into context, one must understand the logistical challenges of conducting an epidemiologic study. Most of the time, epidemiologists have the capacity (or funding) to study only a relatively small sample of people. However, their goal is to make inferences about a larger population, called the target population.

For instance, consider a study to assess the efficacy of a booster vaccine for mumps among people living in the United States. The target population would include individuals who have not had mumps and have had an initial mumps vaccination. Because the target population is so large, it is not feasible to study all of them, and it may also be difficult to obtain a true random sample of the target population.

The study population is defined as the group of individuals in the target population who are eligible to be in the study. In statistical parlance, these eligible people have a nonzero probability to be included in the study. For the vaccine research, a convenient study population may be individuals attending high schools in five selected cities. The study population is selected to provide a representative sample of the target population and is largely determined by logistical factors. For example, the investigators must consider the geographic locations of qualified investigators and school districts willing to participate in the study. The study sample may be a random sample of students in these districts who provide informed consent. A more likely (and logistically convenient) scenario would be a random sample of schools where either the whole school or all students in a specific grade are selected.

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