One Child Policy, China

China has the highest population of any country in the world. Mid-2006 estimates set China's population at just over 1.3 billion; its rate of natural increase (RNI) is 0.6 percent per year. This rate is one-half that of the world and only one-third of India's RNI (1.7 percent). There is every indication that India will pass China in total population some time between 2030 and 2040. Despite its relatively low RNI, China has chosen to continue its often criticized official policy of one child per family, which has been reauthorized through the current five-year plan (2006–10). The Chinese government justifies the extension of this policy by stating that it continues to be consistent with the country's basic plan for population growth, a plan that reflects an insistence on slow growth. Along with the statement reauthorizing the one child policy was a proclamation that it would stay in place permanently.

The one child policy was initiated in 1979, when the Chinese government identified it as a short-term measure. At the time of implementation there was great concern that the growth of China's population would get out of hand. The country's arable land was limited, and over 60 percent of the population was approaching childbearing age. The prospect of high population increase and the potential inability to produce enough food for growing numbers provided the impetus for the policy. The legislation included several requirements in addition to the one child provision. Included was the insistence on later marriage, a policy long in place in some Scandinavian [Page 1301]countries, and on the spacing of children in situations where more than one child was allowed. Other exclusions covered families in which a child was disabled, both parents worked in high-risk industries, or the parents were only children. In addition, there were special provisions in place for rural families. Generally, a second child was allowed after number of years, especially if the first was a girl. In some severely underpopulated regions of China, a third child was allowed.

The one child policy includes provisions for the awarding of economic incentives for families in compliance, and penalties and fines for not adhering to the rules. Some of the more severe sanctions include the loss of personal property and dismissal from work.

Within the one child policy is the acceptance of various means of birth control through contraception and abortion. This approach is similar to conditions in Japan following the end of World War II, when the country was stripped of overseas territorial acquisitions and was back on its four-island homeland. Almost overnight, the rate of population increase in the country declined to low levels and overall population growth was curtailed.

The one child policy was implemented despite an already sharply declining total fertility rate (TFR), defined as the average number of children born per woman in the childbearing years. In the early 1970s, the TFR in China was nearly six, which would indicate a high rate of population increase if it persisted over many years. By 1979, the year in which the one child policy began, the TFR was down to approximately 2.7. The mid-2006 estimate for TFR in China is 1.6, well below the replacement rate of 2.1 and the world average of 2.7. Despite these reassuring figures, the Chinese government insists that the one child policy is within the long-term interests of the country.

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