China

The people's republic of China has the highest population of any country in the world, with an estimated 1.311 billion people in 2006. The population of India, the second country in the world to exceed a billion people, is not far behind at 1.122 billion. The rates of natural increase for each of these Asian giants, 0.6 percent for China and 1.7 percent for India, indicates that India will surpass China in total population some time around 2040, when both countries will have over 1.45 billion inhabitants. As India continues to gain significantly in population through mid-century, China is predicted to actually decline in population between 2025 and 2050 for several reasons: 1. the continuance of its [Page 247]low rate of natural increase (RNI), 2. the the government's view that the birthrate is satisfactory (12 births per 1,000 people as opposed to India's 24 births per 1,000) by married women in their childbearing years (15–49), and 3. China's continuance of its one-child-per-family policy through the next five-year plan, 2006–10.

China's experience with its one-child policy has led to some serious problems. Cultural preference is for a male child. In many instances, first-born girls have become victims of female infanticide. Despite this severe outcome, China intends to limit its population to 1.37 billion by 2010 in large part through the continuance of the one-child policy. The one-child policy has produced another inequity within China's population: By 2020 there will be approximately 40 million more men than women in the population. This imbalance has already caused many men to question whether they will have the opportunity to marry and have a family of their own.

China is the fourth-largest country, with a total area of 9.6 million square kilometers, which is slightly smaller than the United States. The country has a mid-latitude location in eastern Eurasia and an extremely diverse climatic system. The land surface is varied, with extensive mountain regimes and desert areas in the west, loess plateaus in the north, and alluvial plains in the east. Despite the size of the country, only 15 percent of the land area is suitable for agriculture. Within this sector a great variety of agricultural products are produced. Double-cropping of rice is practiced extensively in the warm and humid southeastern China. Rice gives way to wheat and other more droughttolerant crops in the north. The arid west is dotted with oasis-type agricultural systems.

Industrial growth in China has been very rapid in the past two decades. Spectacular strides have been made in metal production, machine manufacture, energy production and use, transportation equipment, telecommunication systems, and a wide variety of consumer goods. In addition, the service sector of the Chinese economy continues to expand with employment in the industrial sector. With a total labor force nearing 800 million, China is an economic force to consider in the global arena. The agricultural sector comprises half the labor force and contributes only 13 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The combined industry and service sectors comprise the other half of the labor force, with a collective contribution to GDP at 87 percent. The labor force in agriculture has dropped from over 70 percent in the late 1970s to its present level, and is predicted to continue this decline as more farm workers exit the rural areas and move to industrial and service sector jobs in the cities. By the year 2015, it is estimated that the percentage of the Chinese population will be evenly divided between urban and rural habitats. The significance of this shift is striking: As recently as 1975, rural residents represented approximately 84 percent of the population, while urban residents represented a mere 16 percent.

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