Travel Modeling

In the mathematical sense, a model is a description of a system using mathematical concepts and language. This same term could also be described as a mathematical account of something in the real world. Researchers most often use models for the purpose of quantifying real-world systems toward the goal of understanding those systems. Traffic researchers use travel models (also known as travel simulations) for the purpose of forecasting future trends and planning needed improvements.

A number of questions are posed to planners that travel modeling can be useful in solving; these include (but are not limited to) determining the impacts of fee policies in public transit systems, the influence of telecommunications and e-commerce on passenger and freight travel, and the impact of planning on land use and (conversely) the impact of terrain on planning, as well as methods through which the human impact on global climate change may be minimized through proper planning.

Travel modeling may take into account either specifically travel-related data or other regional factors. Travel variables frequently taken into consideration include the number of vehicles on a road, ridership of a railway line, the number of passengers visiting an airport, or ships using a seaport. Other regional social-oriented factors that could be used in travel models include regional populations, employment rates, and the financial cost of travel.

Travel modeling is critical not only in developing transportation policy, planning public works, and determining the viability of a wide scope of projects but also in determining the social impact and environmental impact of proposed projects. By using travel modeling and associated computational methods, transportation researchers study traveler behavior, the impact of telecommunications on travel behavior, potential trends in transportation demand, and those elements of urban planning that could impact transportation systems.

The past decade has seen a number of changes in the field of travel modeling. These changes include the use of technology toward collecting data on traveler activity, the increased use of disaggregated microsimulations in understanding travel and associated activities on the individual level, and the increased use of dynamic network modeling.