Automobile Drivers, Elderly

In the coming years, dramatic increases in the number of and proportion of the population that is elderly will have significant impacts on the transportation system and transportation policy. Though elderly drivers drive less than younger drivers, their impact on the transportation system may be less predictable than that of younger drivers, who are more often tied to travel patterns centered on the work commute and fixed work hours and days. In addition to the impacts to aggregate travel demand, the ability of elderly drivers to drive safely is of concern to policy makers. This latter concern has led to the implementation of screening tests for license renewals and vehicle and transportation system changes designed to limit the number of vehicle crashes caused by [Page 209]elderly drivers. This may lead to the cessation of driving for some, which can lead to deterioration of mobility and greater dependence upon friends and family as well as on public services.

Over time, people in the United States and other industrialized countries have become more dependent upon the automobile for most transportation needs. As successive cohorts of drivers have aged, they have driven more frequently and for more miles than the elderly of previous generations. In addition, better health care for the elderly has allowed more elderly drivers to drive at older ages than previously. The first of the baby boom generation (the generation born between 1945 and 1964) will become elderly in the next few years. This generation has been more automobile dependent than any previous generation and therefore increases in this population will have significant impacts on the transportation system in the years ahead.

According to population projections produced by the U.S. Census Bureau, between 2015 and 2060, the number of people aged 65 years and older will increase by 93 percent (compared to 30.8 percent for the population overall). In 2060, over 22 percent of the population of the United States is projected to be aged 65 years or older (compared to 14 percent in 2010) and 612 million people will be aged 85 years or older. All industrialized countries will experience these same patterns of change, resulting in substantial increases in the number of elderly drivers. Because the growth in the population will include many more women drivers than in previous generations, questions remain as to the extent of the impacts on the transportation system.

For most age groups, the difference in driver licensure rates for men and women is less than 5 percent (with men more likely to drive than women). This is not so for the oldest age groups. Some women who drove in younger ages may give up driving as they age and their cognitive abilities and visual acuity decline. Women are also more likely to give up driving more readily as a result of deterioration of health. However, much of the gap in driver license holding between elderly men and women is primarily a result of generational characteristics.

These now elderly women had licensure rates lower than that of men during their working ages, and by 2009, 72.8 percent of elderly women and 88.6 percent of elderly men were licensed to drive. These gaps in licensure between elderly women and men are likely to disappear as women of the baby boom generation, who have held licenses at rates similar to men, are likely to continue to drive even after entering retirement age.

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