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Flynn Effect: Rising Intelligence Scores

Flynn effect is the term commonly used to denote the observed increase in scores on IQ tests over time—for example, from one generation to the next. The Flynn effect can be understood as a birth-date effect in that average IQ rises with each increment in year of birth. The phenomenon is named for the New Zealand political scientist James R. Flynn, who described and quantified the rising scores in a series of publications beginning in the 1980s. The term Flynn effect was applied to the phenomenon by Richard J. Herrnstein and Charles Murray in their 1994 book, The Bell Curve. This entry begins by explaining the Flynn effect in terms of the conventions of IQ measurement. Then it describes the scope of the Flynn effect with respect to time and geography. It then specifies the evidence that led to discovery of the rising scores and describes some other data that have been used to characterize the Flynn effect. Then putative causes of the rising scores are considered along with theoretical and practical implications of the IQ increase. The entry ends with a brief note about the future course of IQ changes.

Psychometric Manifestations of the Flynn Effect

The scaling of commonly used IQ tests, such as the Wechsler tests and Stanford-Binet tests, ensures that the average score for a specified population is 100. If an IQ test uses a different scale, for example, a scale based on percentiles, the scores can be converted into equivalent IQs. In either case, the average IQ for a population would be set to 100. However, because older children tend to perform better than younger children and older adults sometimes perform worse than younger adults, it is necessary to calculate IQs separately for different age groups. Thus, even though actual test performance (raw scores) may differ substantially from one age group to another, the average IQ for each age group remains fixed at 100. Seen from this perspective the Flynn effect is an increase in raw scores from one cohort to the next. For example, today's 30-year-olds are performing at a higher level than the 30-year-olds of a decade ago.

In the absence of any adjustment for the Flynn effect, IQ scores would continue to rise indefinitely. If the population average is to remain at 100, the normative data must be updated regularly. IQ norms accumulated today will be more stringent than they would have been a decade ago. For instance, achieving an IQ of 100 on a test normed in 2010 would require that a 30-year-old earn a higher raw score than would have been needed for a 30-year-old to achieve an IQ of 100 in the year 2000.

Magnitude and Ubiquity of the Effect

The Flynn effect is notable for several reasons. First, its magnitude is sufficiently large as to have significant impact wherever IQ tests are used. Depending on the test used to assess intelligence, average scores have been increasing at the rate of 3 to 6 IQ points per decade. Because of this increase in the population average, test performance that yielded an average IQ of 100 in 1960 would yield an IQ of only 70 to 85 if norms from the year 2010 were used. Consequently, an apparent decline in test performance from one age cohort to the next older cohort would be seen in the absence of any age-related deterioration of mental ability. Moreover, the Flynn effect is pervasive with respect to time, geography, and age group. On the basis of data from the United Kingdom, Flynn has inferred that the rise in scores can be traced back to the Industrial Revolution. Other data indicate that scores are rising on at least five continents. The Flynn effect can be observed in adults and children alike.

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