Monitoring the Future

Purpose and Scope

The main purpose of Monitoring the Future is to study the changes in beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors related to drug use among adolescents in the United States. Questions about licit and illicit drug use, the survey's principal target, make up approximately 50% of the total survey. Monitoring the Future measures everything from personal use and drug-related problems to attitudes about their drug use by others and beliefs about the perceived harmfulness of drug use. As of 2011, the survey included these measures in relation to more than 50 different classes and subclasses of drugs. This survey encompasses more types of drugs than any other nationally representative survey in the United States. Since its inception, every few years a new set of drugs has been added to the survey as new alternatives for mood-altering substances available to adolescents have grown exponentially, a trend that is expected to continue as new drugs continue to flood the market. In addition to measuring attitudes about substance use, the survey also measures a variety of related factors, including (but not limited to) personal lifestyle choices, high school experiences, views about social [Page 445]institutions, health, leisure activities, victimization, home environment, and life satisfaction.

The majority of the data collected through Monitoring the Future are cross-sectional, meaning that they provide researchers with information collected at one specific point in time, a snapshot view of current incidence and prevalence of drug use. In addition to the cross-sectional data collected annually, the survey also includes a longitudinal study of a subsample of each graduating class, which allows researchers to track individual changes in behaviors and attitudes across a long period of time. Beginning in 1976, researchers began gathering longitudinal data on this subset, conducting follow-up surveys every other year. This longitudinal sample is then divided into two subsamples, students who went on to college after high school and those who did not. Data gathered through Monitoring the Future provide the public with a picture of changing trends. The combination of both cross-sectional and longitudinal components allows for the measurement of specific types of changes: (a) historical trend changes that are common to all age cohorts, (b) changes across the life span of those enrolled in the survey follow-up, (c) enduring cohort differences that change from one graduating class to the next, and (d) the follow-up data that were collected on individuals into their 50s, which allow for the measurement of the differential impact of post–high school environments (e.g., college, workforce, and military), major life course changes (e.g., marriage and parenthood), and individual characteristics.

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