Uncertainty

Uncertainty is experienced in the absence of knowing something to be either true or false. People evaluate the clarity, completeness, depth, accuracy, source credibility, applicability, and consistency of the information they receive to manage uncertainty. Uncertainty may be present even when thorough information is available; however, to quell uncertainty situational information that is adequate to some may be inadequate to others. In public relations, understanding, communicating, and managing both organizational and public uncertainty are important considerations in relationship management.

Charles R. Berger and Richard J. Calabrese's (1975) uncertainty reduction theory assumes people seek to reduce uncertainty about themselves and others in initial encounters. The extent of that drive is affected by how positive, negative, or neutral the state of uncertainty. Uncertainty can be productive in that it often motivates information seeking. Uncertainty increases as the ability to foresee future courses of action or to obtain consistent, thorough information decreases.

Instead of the primarily interpersonal focus of uncertainty reduction theory, William Gudykunst's (1988) work on anxiety-uncertainty management theory extends uncertainty reduction theory by examining message design in intergroup and cross-cultural communication, which enhances its applicability to public relations campaign strategy. It incorporates both cognitive (uncertainty reduction) and affective (anxiety reduction) dimensions and suggests that the twin processes of uncertainty reduction and anxiety reduction are key mediating variables for adaptation. Ultimately, anxiety may lead to resignation, withdrawal, or fear if no outlets are available to resolve the situation, and it may be productive only if new information allows people to channel that angst in a positive way.

In public relations, organizations must identify the most effective strategies to manage both their own and the publics’ uncertainty, as uncertainty may affect trust in the organization and its messages as well as how people seek to manage their uncertainty. These considerations are particularly important during crises. Situational unknowns are often inherent in a crisis context. Given that message completeness is central to uncertainty reduction, in the absence of thorough information publics seek to reduce uncertainty by “filling in the blanks” with other information and may become misinformed or compromise trust in the organization managing the crisis.

For example, during an emerging health crisis, such as SARS or avian flu, health agencies are often faced with unknowns about disease prevention, virulence, and transmission. Without complete information, people may manage their uncertainties by seeking information from other sources, and the health agency loses control of the message. Or, uncertainty may compromise public trust in the agency's ability to manage the crisis and, in turn, motivation to follow prohealth directives, which [Page 942]may exacerbate the crisis situation and compromise public safety. Thus public relations practitioners— in routine and crisis situations—must be aware of and manage public uncertainty and how it affects information consumption and use while at the same time examine the best strategies to communicate their own uncertainties.