Technology S-Curve

What Is a Technology S-Curve?

Before a discussion of what a technology S-curve is can begin, a particular point of common initial confusion by new scholars must be addressed. Specifically, there are two technology management related S-curves: technology S-curve (the focus of this entry) and the technology adoption S-curve (also known as technology adoption curve or technology adoption life cycle). These S-curves are very different in regard to their focus and subsequent insights offered. However, unfortunately, both are sometimes referred to simply as technology S-curves and, thus, a discerning manager or scholar must recognize and understand their distinctions before appropriate insights can be gleaned. The technology S-curve, which is elaborated in more detail below, is focused on technology performance improvement [Page 847]and maturity as a function of consistent R & D (Research & Development) effort. The technology adoption S-curve is focused on market share capture via various adopter groups for a technological innovation.

What Factors Influence the Shape of a Technology S-Curve?

The key concepts associated with the technology S-curve are performance and effort. The technology S-curve displays the improvement of performance of a technology through the collective efforts of multiple actors (e.g., firms, individuals, institutes, universities, associations, etc.) over time within an industry or technological domain. Some research also suggests technology improvements can be firm dependent although the ever-increasing practice of open innovation suggests that the inclusion of diverse actors beyond firm boundaries will continue well into the future. The shape of the S-curve reflects the dynamics of the slow initial improvement of the technology as part of the uncertain fluid stage where the fundamentals of the technology are poorly understood. But as the technology diffuses to more actors and is better understood and improved upon, the extent and rate of technological improvements specific to the technology increases and, subsequently, performance increases, creating a significant rise in slope of the S-curve. Finally, maturity of the technology is reached when further performance improvements slow or cease to materialize due to actual or perceived physical constraints of the technology. Initial models of the technology S-curve suggested that technology performance improvement occurs over time, but more recent research has shown that R & D efforts are a better determinate of improved technological performance than time. Thus, older models of the technology S-curve will show time on the x-axis, while more recent models will reflect effort instead. It should also be noted that the term technology is contextually defined to include various technological domains, such as information technology, engineering, sciences, and so on, and can exist in differing forms, such as a product (e.g., pharmaceutical drug), process (e.g., biotechnology assay), component (e.g., silicon wafer), or system (e.g., smart phone) technologies.

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