Expectancy Theory

Fundamentals

Expectancy theory rests on the assumption that much behavior is motivated and goal directed. Goals induce forces on people to engage in courses of action which they believe will result in their attainment. This was stated formally in two propositions. The first proposition asserted that the force on a person to perform an activity or set of activities is a function of the attractiveness or valence of a goal multiplied by the expectancy that the activity will result in the attainment of that goal. Since there may be multiple anticipated outcomes, some positive and some negative, the valence of each is multiplied by its expectancy and summed over outcomes as shown in the following equation.

$$F_i=f_i\left\{{\displaystyle {\sum }_{j=1}^n(}{E}_{ij}{V}_j)\right\}$$

Where: F i = the force to perform act i

E ij = the strength of the expectancy that act i will be followed by outcome j

Vj = the valence of outcome j

This proposition is useful in predicting behavior, such as deciding how much effort and energy to invest in carrying out work. Applied to work motivation, this proposition asserts that the amount of effort that a person puts into the achievement of a performance goal is dependent on two necessary conditions—that the goal is attractive and that the person believes that it can be achieved through effort.

The second proposition asserts that outcomes acquire valence to the degree to which they are believed to be instrumental to the achievement of one’s goals. In effect, perceived a “stepping stone” to the achievement of goals become goals, the means become ends. As before, multiple consequences believed to be associated with the stepping stone require summation over outcomes each multiplied by its instrumentality.

$$v_j=f_i\left\{{\displaystyle {\sum }_1^j(V_k{I}_{jk})}\right\}$$

Where: V j = the valence of outcome j

I jk = the perceived instrumentality of outcome j for the attainment of outcome k

Vk = the valence of outcome k[Page 272]

Note that expectancy theory said nothing about the motives or needs that drive human behavior. It has frequently been termed a process theory rather than a content theory, such as those of Abraham Maslow or Clayton Alderfer. The two types of theories potentially complement one another. Content theories address the basic human motives underlying human conduct, while the process theories are concerned with the way in which these motives, and goals based on them, influence people’s actions.

Expectancy theory was first published in my 1964 book called Work and Motivation. Here, I applied the theory to three aspects of the relationship between people and the work they do: (a) peoples’ choices among work, both occupations and jobs, (b) their satisfaction with the work they do, and (c) their effectiveness in performing their work. The theory provided a reasonable explanation for organizing the relevant research on each of these three areas of inquiry. It also identified some gaps in the existing literature and provided an explanation for the frequent finding that measures of job satisfaction and of job performance tend to be uncorrelated.

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