Uncertainty

Crises create high levels of uncertainty and threat, both perceived and real, within the general public. Because of this, many definitions of crisis have the term uncertainty within the definition or central to it. Crisis events are low probability but have high consequences. The characteristics of crisis cause individuals, organizations, and officials to make decisions and take actions in a limited amount of time with incomplete information. This, coupled with the unanticipated nature and potential risk of the event, contributes to the high levels of uncertainty.

The state of uncertainty is psychologically uncomfortable for humans and motivates individuals to engage in actions and behaviors to reduce uncertainty, thus gaining predictability. One way in which individuals attempt to gain certainty and predictability is through information seeking. It has been observed that after a crisis, the public will look for information anywhere they can obtain it and will constantly look for the most current and accurate information, with the media often being a dominant source.

Uncertainty can be found in several aspects of everyday life. Most common among people is financial uncertainty. This takes place when the future of certain financial investments cannot be foreseen. When probabilities are known, the investment is considered a risk; however, when probability is unknown, uncertainty is present. Stock market investments and other new investments are examples of activities with financial uncertainty. The gambling industry is built on the degrees of uncertainty for winning. Millions of people spend large amounts of money trying to win a bigger amount of money at the various game tables or machines. Another area of uncertainty can be found in weather forecasting. Though weather forecasts are issued each day, there is a consistent amount of uncertainty present in each report. Some forecasters provide the amount of uncertainty with predictions, usually involving severe weather conditions such as snowstorms or hurricanes. Mathematical calculations also carry uncertainty. Units of measurement are used, but only to a certain degree, which leaves an amount of uncertainty in the measure. Depending on the difficulty of the measurement or the calculation, the amount of uncertainty can be large or small. Thus, people deal with different levels of uncertainty in everyday life and experience more or less comfort with that uncertainty.