Thermometer Ratings

Political scientists measure voters' feelings toward candidates with thermometer ratings, ranging from 100 degrees or “very warm or favorable feeling” to zero or “very cold or unfavorable feeling.” No rating is recorded if the voter does not recognize the politician's name.

Before presidential elections, the National Election Studies (NES) conducts surveys of voter attitudes concerning the candidates. Each respondent is shown a drawing of a “feeling thermometer” that looks like a standard temperature thermometer. The respondent is then asked to show on that scale the level of his or her feelings toward a particular candidate. After the election NES asks the same voters who they supported.

The thermometer rankings are usually a very accurate reflection of the actual vote. In 1992, for example, 93 percent of those who ranked President George Bush highest on the thermometer also voted for him. Similarly, 95 percent of those high on Bill Clinton also gave him their votes. Of the 16 percent warmest to Ross Perot, 77 percent voted for him. In 2000 the thermometer ratings indicated a neck-and-neck race. The average feeling for Democrat Al Gore was 57 percent, just more than the 56 percent for Republican George W. Bush.

The thermometer ratings are a tool for measuring whether a portion of the electorate voted its feelings or instead engaged in strategic or sophisticated voting to support another candidate.