Coattails

A popular candidate who sweeps other candidates to victory along with him or her is said to have “long coattails.” Congressional and state candidates might ride the coattails of a strong presidential candidate. A candidate for governor might gain votes for the party's candidates for state and local offices.

In 1980 the coattail effect of Ronald Reagan's popularity helped Republicans win a majority in the Senate for the first time since 1955. On the other hand, an unpopular president can have “reverse coattails” and be a drag on the rest of the ticket, as Herbert Hoover was to the Republicans in 1932.

[Page p98]Although his approval ratings were high in 1996, Bill Clinton became the first Democratic president reelected without leading his party to control of either chamber of Congress. The Republicans who took over in the 1994 midterm elections retained their majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives.

In 2000, paradoxically, it was the losing candidate who had the longer coattails. Vice President Al Gore failed to gain the White House because he had fewer electoral votes than Texas governor George W. Bush. But Gore won a plurality of the popular vote, and Democrats picked up seats in both chambers of Congress. Two years later, elections took another unusual twist when Bush hit the campaign trail for House and Senate Republican candidates even though he was not up for reelection. Republicans won control of the Senate and increased their majority in the House, thanks in large part to the president's popularity with voters.

Incumbency is frequently a stronger factor in elections than the popularity of the candidate heading the ticket. Incumbents usually win and challengers usually lose. This pattern is particularly pronounced in the House, where 90 percent or more of incumbents typically win reelection—many with more than 60 percent of the vote.

Independence also weakens the coattail effect, and modern campaigns are mostly candidate-centered. The candidates form their own organizations and run largely on their own with little reliance on the party organizations or help from the ticket leader.

Most states elect their governors and other state officials in nonpresidential election years, to minimize the effect of national politics on state and local elections. By one estimate, a strong national candidate could add as much as 5 percent to the votes of statewide candidates.

Abraham Lincoln, then a U.S. representative from Illinois, is credited with popularizing the coattails metaphor. Responding on the House floor in 1848 to an accusation that he and others were taking shelter under Zachary Taylor's “military coat tail,” Lincoln noted that the Democrats were still running under the coattails of another war hero, former president Andrew Jackson.