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Research is commonly designed to test causal hypotheses. Whether the hypothesis is general or specific, it can be expressed as ‘IV causes DV,’ where IV is an independent (causal) variable and DV is the dependent (consequent) variable. There are three generally accepted conditions for establishing causality—temporal ordering, reliable covariation, and nonspuriousness. These conditions can be met in either longitudinal or cross-sectional studies, but there is an important difference between the two. Longitudinal studies compare two or more time periods on a set of cases. The resulting regression coefficient describes the amount of change in the DV resulting from a unit change in the IV. Cross-sectional studies compare a set of individuals (persons or groups) who differ on the DV. The resulting regression coefficient describes the amount of difference between individuals on the DV, given a unit difference in the IV. Longitudinal and cross-sectional designs will yield the same regression coefficients only if the process generating variation in the DV is constant across individuals and stable across time periods.

Temporal Ordering

Although the term cross-sectional would seem to imply that the variables in the hypothesis are measured at exactly the same time, this is not always the case. Frequently, a study is considered cross-sectional as long as none of the variables is measured at two or more points in time—which would make the analysis longitudinal. For example, prediction of college freshman grade point average (GPA) from Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) scores would be considered cross-sectional even if SAT scores were taken 18 months before the GPAs.

Reliable Covariation

Establishing reliable covariation requires three conditions—a measure of association between two variables, statistical significance, and sample representativeness.

Measures of Association

There are many measures of association between pairs of variables (‘bivariate correlation’) that depend on the ways in which the variables are measured. The most widely recognized, the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (r), is used when both variables are continuous (either interval or ratio). Other correlation coefficients arise when the IV and DV are other types of scales (e.g., the phi coefficient is used when both variables are dichotomies) or combinations of scales (e.g., the point-biserial correlation is used when one variable is continuous and the other is a dichotomy). However, the textbook formulas for these coefficients are simply special cases of the Pearson r.

One important consideration in estimating the degree of association between two variables is whether the obtained correlation coefficient has been attenuated by unreliability in the variables or diminished by variance restriction. The maximum observed correlation between X1 and Y is limited by the reliabilities of the two variables. Thus, it is extremely important to measure variables as reliably as possible. This can be achieved by rationally constructing multi-item scales for both variables, pretesting these scales, conducting item analyses to refine the scales, and reporting the scales' reliability coefficients (e.g., Cronbach's α) in the study results. Variance restriction occurs when a floor or ceiling effect produces a skewed distribution of very low or very high scores, respectively. A very high proportion of low scores results when using an ability test that is too difficult or an attitude inventory whose items are too unpopular. By contrast, a very high proportion of high scores results from using an ability test that is too easy or an attitude inventory whose items are too popular.

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