Enrollment Projections

National Projections

National forecasts are published by the National Center for Education Statistics, and typically these projections are made for 10 years from the year of publication. The predictions are useful for those who are concerned with national educational policy and practice. The most recent publication at the time of this writing—in 2003 from the National Center for Education Statistics—includes projections of enrollment (kindergarten through 8th grade, and 9th grade through 12th grade) through 2013, public and private school teachers through 2013, and expenditures per pupil of public elementary and secondary schools.

Typically, these projections are quite accurate. The most accurate projections are those made for 1 and 2 years from the date of publication, while those for 5 and 10 years from date of publication are slightly less accurate. For example, the mean percentage errors for public K–8 enrollment over 20 editions of the publication were 0.3%, 0.6%, 1.1%, and 2.7% for projections 1, 2, 5, and 10 years from date of publication. A pocket-sized edition of the publication also is available. These publications are available without charge and can be downloaded from the National Center for Education Statistics web site (http://nces.ed.gov).

State Projections

The U.S. Census Bureau provides projections of population change for the various states. This information would be helpful to people involved in planning activities for state governments, education agencies, and the like. A variety of Web sites are available that provide information about the population of each state and political subdivisions therein. For example, information at http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/index.html allows the user to access information related to the population of the 50 states, as well as each county, by age and other factors. The American Community Survey Web site (http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Products/Profiles/Single/2002/ACS/index.htm) provides information that also can be useful in understanding the characteristics of the population of a state. Data organized by state, congressional districts, counties, and some metropolitan statistical areas are included on this Web site.

School District Projections

Predicting enrollments in local school districts can be a complex task. A common approach used by school districts to project enrollments from 1 year to the next is the cohort survival rate. One study demonstrated that this technique was more accurate than the Percentage-Survival Method or the Law of Growth Method of Forecasting. Several examples below illustrate how the cohort survival technique has been used to forecast enrollments.

The New England School Development Council uses the cohort survival rate and points out that it takes into account several factors that are crucial in projecting enrollments:

• Migration, in or out, of the schools
• Retention in the same grade
• Changes in the school program
• Dropouts, transfers, and so on
• Births and deaths
• Housing growth

One must also add private/parochial school memberships and special education student memberships to this list of factors. In contemporary society, decisions to homeschool students also can affect enrollment projections.

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