Aging, Social and Cultural Perspectives

Aging in Developing Countries

The most rapid population growth across all ages will occur in developing countries. The number of adults age 65 and older will increase almost fourfold from 3.8% of the population (475 million elders) of less-developed countries in 2005 to 14.6% (1.6 billion) in 2050, with the number of those over age 80 growing most rapidly. Even though fertility rates are declining worldwide, huge differences still occur between countries and regions. For example, children under age 15 represent 37% of the population in less-developed regions and 22% in more-developed areas. Due to a successively larger percentage of older than younger people, the population of developing countries by 2050 will nevertheless be as old as today's developed countries.

Aging in Developed Countries

Currently, 60% of older adults live in developed countries; by 2020, this figure will increase to 75%. Japan has the highest proportion of elders (22%), followed by Italy (20%), Germany and Greece (19%), and Sweden (18%). By 2050, the median age in Italy will be 52.5, followed by Japan at 52.3. By comparison, the increase in median age in the United States will be smaller (36.5 currently to 41.5 in 2050).

In 1900, people age 65 and older formed 4% of the U.S. population—less than 1 in 25. Today, slightly more than 100 years later, this segment has grown to almost 39 million, or 12.8%, much more rapidly than the segment of those under age 65. The increase in the older population slowed slightly in the 1990s due to the relatively small number of children born during the Great Depression. But [Page 80]with the first baby boomers (those born between 1946 and 1964, who comprise 26% of the population) turning 65 in 2011, it is projected that 10,000 people will turn 65 each day—or one every 7 seconds. By 2030, older adults will form about 19.3% of the total population. This represents a 100% increase over 30 years compared with a 30% growth in the total population.

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