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Winter Storms
In many places around the world, heavy snow and ice accumulations may result from winter storms, bringing transportation to a halt and cutting power to affected populations. The primary weather phenomenons by which winter storms occur—and that affects the largest population and geographical area—are extratropical cyclones and fronts, whereas lake-effect and mountain snowstorms may cripple local regions.
In the United States, on average, approximately 20 people die and 130 are injured each year from the direct effects of winter storms (not including cold exposure or traffic accidents). More may die in the days after the storm during recovery efforts. Economic losses exceed $500 million a year, but rise even higher when indirect costs from lost wages, accidents, air traffic delays, cleanup costs, and mitigation efforts are added. The global numbers on casualties and losses are unknown.
Precipitation Formation
Precipitation (rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet) occurs when air containing water vapor ascends and cools, and the water vapor condenses to form small droplets or ice crystals that remain suspended in the air, forming a cloud. With sustained ascent and continued condensation, rain droplets or snowflakes form that are large enough to fall out of the cloud as precipitation. Precipitation is enhanced by three factors: more water vapor, the air temperature decreasing with height rapidly (referred to as an unstable atmosphere, which would favor stronger ascent), and a mechanism for sustained and intense ascent of the moist air.
Because the temperature of the air decreases rapidly with height—for example, the tops of mountains are colder than their bases—most precipitation starts out as snow, even within the tropics. When this snow falls, it may descend through a warmer layer near the surface of the Earth, melting the snow into rain. Alternatively, falling rain may encounter a subfreezing layer of air near the surface. If this layer is deep enough, then the rain may freeze into sleet (also called ice pellets). Shallower, subfreezing layers may result in the rain freezing upon contact with the cold ground. Such conditions are known as freezing rain, and ice during such events can accumulate as thick as 0.8–2 inches. Thus, the type of precipitation at the surface (rain, snow, freezing rain, or sleet) is quite sensitive to the temperature profile near the ground. The difficulty of observing and predicting the near-surface temperature profiles during rapidly changing winter storms makes it challenging to forecast the exact type of precipitation.
Types and Locations of Winter Storms
The majority of winter storms are caused by low-pressure systems (extratropical cyclones) and their attendant fronts. Low-pressure systems are caused by mobile disturbances in the jetstream, a globe-encircling belt of strong winds three to nine miles above the surface. Low-pressure systems develop sharp contrasts in temperature called fronts. Cold air moving into warm air is called a cold front, and warm air advancing into cold air is called a warm front. The largest region of precipitation associated with an extratropical cyclone occurs north of the warm front, where the majority of the warm, moist air rises up over the warm front in steady ascent. The most intense snowfall rates (up to six to seven inches per hour) generally occur to the northeast, north, and northwest of the low center, enhanced by what is called embedded convection. The embedded convection may organize as bands or cells of convection inside a broader region of moderate to light precipitation. Should one of these areas of embedded convection remain stationary for several hours, the snow or ice may be deeper.
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