Risk Communications

Hazard plus Outrage Equals Risk

As a technical concept, risk and subsequent communication is the focus on how to alert the public on the probability of a harmful event, and the magnitude associated with that event. The technical assessment of a risk typically models the impact of the potential risk on human activity in terms of harm, mortality, and physical damage.

One model of risk, proposed by risk communication expert Peter Sandman and colleagues, suggests that risk communication messages should be made up of two facets: scaring people and calming people down. Stated differently, it is the use of messages for alerting and reassuring people. The model further suggests that risk communication is the attempt to create a level of outrage that is suitable to the level or hazard; therefore, the model becomes Risk = Hazard + Outrage. If the public is outraged because they don't understand the hazard, then the public needs to be educated. If they do understand the hazard, address the outrage.

Hazard can be considered the technical seriousness of a risk, while outrage is cultural seriousness. Hazard is made up of constructs such as likelihood, magnitude, fear, mortality, mobility, and dread. Outrage responses may include both specific actions and emotional factors such as need for control, trust, and responsiveness. Emotional factors include worry, concern, anxiety, or alarm; these include the suspense caused by an awareness of danger and hostility.

Such emotional factors have the potential to motivate or impede actions; therefore, clear directions must be given to facilitate appropriate outrage. The correlation between the hazard (how many people are killed by the risk) and the outrage (how many people the risk upsets) is low. A risk communication message, therefore, needs to put the public's outrage at a level that is appropriate. Then the outrage can be managed and placed at an equivalent level with the assessment of hazard. Risk communication often requires a balance between two goals that appear contradictory. The risk message must induce enough fear so that the audience will take the required action. It must also prevent panic by those faced with the risk.

...