Early Warning and Prediction Systems

Early warning is a major part of risk and disaster management. The ability to manage emergencies, rather than merely react to crises, is critically dependent on the availability and flow of real-time information that is linked through a variety of information networks, both formal and informal. Warning the public of an impending disaster is the last line of defense to mitigate the losses that both natural and technological hazards impose on communities.

Hazard warning systems are social and organizational processes that employ technological and other means to reduce risk and loss. However, there is much more to early warning systems than issuing the warning itself. While the technological aspects of early warning systems (EWS) have received considerable attention by donors and governments, addressing preparedness and disaster management at the community level doesn't often receive the same attention or resources. In the case of the Indian Ocean EWS, for example, despite sufficient generic and case-specific knowledge on the importance of addressing the last mile in EWS, organizations and agencies at all levels face considerable challenges in applying these insights and recommendations.

Most EWS take a supply-side approach to communication, seeing it as a process, whereby experts at the top or center issue information outward and downward to the target population. This leads to an exaggerated focus on technology, and most of the resources are spent on the latest, state-of-the art and impressive gadgets, ignoring the fact that an EWS is only as good as its mastery and inclusion of people's behavior and perception. No matter how good the technology or how accurate the forecasting and warnings, if the information does not reach the people in danger in a timely and understandable manner, or if those receiving the information do not have the ability to respond, then the warning system fails. The humanitarian community has been urged to turn its focus on the often neglected, yet most crucial, aspect of early warning—the people whom the system is supposed to protect.

The Process

Effective early warning brings scientific and technical abilities of hazard identification and forecasting together with effective communications, the commitment of public policy, and, crucially, the understanding and active participation of local communities.

However, there is a significant discrepancy between the attention and resources that the following stages of early warning receive from governments and funding agencies. The International Strategy for Disaster [Page 140]Reduction (ISDR) identifies four interrelated stages in the early warning process:

This February 27, 2010, NOAA Pacific Tsunami Advisory was expanded to the entire West Coast from California to Alaska

• Risk knowledge: Systematically collecting data and undertaking comprehensive, multi-hazard risk assessments that form the baseline for adequate early warning.
• Monitoring and warning service: Employing observation and prediction based on scientific expertise and advanced technologies (e.g., mathematical modeling and remote sensing). A great deal of effort and resources has gone into this stage.
• Dissemination/communication: The institutional and political dimension, where forecasts are turned into messages and transmitted by appropriate agencies as recommendations for action. There has also been considerable investment in this stage.
• Response capability: Human factor of risk perception and decision making, where warnings are turned into appropriate actions at both national and community levels. This has not received as much investment as the first two stages.

In all but the most unexpected, sudden-onset natural events (e.g., earthquakes), warnings are usually staged so that the warning level is stepped up as the event evolves—as it comes closer, as conditions worsen, and as a severe event becomes more likely. A series of warnings will therefore be issued, and warning dissemination should ideally become an interactive and iterative process through flow of information and advice.

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