INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

The IPCC was established jointly by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1988. It was chaired by B. Bolin (Sweden); other members of the panel were A. Al Gain (Saudi Arabia), who was vice chairman; J.A. Adejokun (Nigeria), who was rapporteur; and N. Sundararaman (WMO), who was secretary. The panel had two objectives: (1) to assess the scientific information related to the issue of climate change and to evaluate its environmental and socio-economic consequences and (2) to formulate realistic response strategies for the management of climate change.

To carry out these objectives, the panel set up three Working Groups to assess, in relation to climate change, the available scientific information (Working Group I, chaired by J.T. Houghton, UK) and its impacts (Working Group II, Y. Israel, USSR), and to formulate policy responses (Working Group III, F. Bernthal, USA). In addition, a special committee (chaired by M.J. Ripert, France) was established to promote the participation of developing countries in these activities.

In 1990, the initial reports of Working Groups I and II were published in time for the Second World Climate Conference held in Geneva. Working Group I (scientific assessment) concluded that there is a natural greenhouse effect, which keeps the Earth warmer than it would otherwise be and that human activities result in emissions that have enhanced, and will increasingly enhance, this effect. It confidently calculated that immediate reductions by 60 per cent in the emissions of long-lived gases (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)) were necessary to keep concentrations at current levels and predicted that under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. no steps will be taken to limit emissions) global mean temperatures would rise by 0.3°C per decade over the next 100 years. Working Group II (impacts and adaptations) concluded that changes in climate would have important effects, amongst others, on agriculture, natural ecosystems and water resources. Working Group III (mitigation, economic and social dimensions of climate change) found that climate change is a global issue and will require a global effort, but the onus will be on the developed countries. Updates are ongoing and the various assessment reports for the Working Groups and some synthesis reports have all been published by either Cambridge University Press or other publishers. (All the reports can be accessed at http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml.) The four reports so far have been controversial with some atmospheric scientists (climate change skeptics or deniers) casting doubt on either the data or the results or both. But they are a vociferous minority, and generally speaking, anthropogenic climate change is now accepted. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) is in progress and will again consist of three Working Group reports and a synthesis report. It should be completed in 2013/2014.