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McCarthy, Bill, and John Hagan: Danger and Deterrence

Deterrence theory assumes that individuals have free will, are capable of rationally weighing the costs and benefits of their actions, and will make decisions that maximize the likelihood of a positive outcome. Previous research has focused on an individual's ability to analyze the benefits of committing crime against the potential formal, informal, and economic costs of being apprehended and punished for their criminal misdeeds. Bill McCarthy and John Hagan contribute to the existing literature on deterrence by suggesting physical danger may be a determining factor in an individual's criminal decision-making process. Specifically, they hypothesize a negative relationship between physical danger and crime wherein the greater the likelihood for physical danger, the less likely an individual will commit crime.

Offenders and Physical Danger

Although many of the characteristics associated with being a perpetrator of crime are also associated with being a victim of crime, victims and offenders are usually studied as separate entities. McCarthy and Hagan bridge this gap and examine offenders who, through their criminal activity, may find themselves victims of physical violence from one or more of McCarthy and Hagan's four sources of physical danger. First, an offender may become the target of physical violence from a victim who is unwilling to surrender one's self or property to the offender. Second, bystanders to a criminal event may intervene, resulting in a physical confrontation. Third, police may use physical force against an offender. Fourth and finally, offenders may be victimized by other criminal offenders.

To date, limited research exists describing the relationship between individual perception of physical danger and criminal decision making. McCarthy and Hagan's 2005 study of prostitution, theft, and drug sales among homeless youths indicates that physical danger is a determining factor in an offender's decision-making process. The direction of the relationship suggests that the more the physical danger, the less likely an individual will commit crime. Similar findings emerged from Eric Beauregard and Benoit Leclerc's study of sex offenders who report the likelihood of resistance from a potential victim and likelihood for bystander involvement are critical factors in the criminal decision-making process. The importance of capable guardianship is evident in these empirical findings (Cohen & Felson, 1979, p. 588).

Implications for Future Research

McCarthy and Hagan's theory of physical danger and decision making has implications for three additional lines of empirical inquiry. First, Julie Horney and Ineke Haen Marshall suggest that an offender's perception of risk may be shaped by the number of successful crimes committed compared to the number of arrests. This line of reasoning can be applied to the study of physical danger. That is, does an offender's perception of physical harm vary based on the number of crimes committed successfully without sustaining physical injury? Second, does the “resetting effect” extend to physical harm (Pogarsky & Piquero, 2003, p. 95)? Intuitively, one would expect an individual's perception of danger to increase if the individual encounters physical danger. The resetting effect suggests the opposite—that is, an offender's perception of physical danger decreases subsequent to a dangerous encounter because the offender believes the odds of a second dangerous encounter to be extremely low. Third, researchers, such as Greg Pogarsky, Alex Piquero, and Ray Paternoster, have begun to integrate social learning theory into deterrence research. Testing the degree to which vicarious learning experiences may influence one's individual perception of physical danger and criminal decision making will further the deterrence/social learning research agenda.

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