Hypothesis

Conceptual Overview and Discussion

The word hypothesis (plural hypotheses, υπθεσις in Greek) derives from the verb hypotithenai, meaning “to put under” or “to suppose.” As a result, the word has been incorporated into common language as a rough equivalent to “guess,” “supposition,” or “speculation.” However, a scientific hypothesis is more rigorous than mere speculation, so it is useful to point out what it is not:

A recipe (a prescriptive, normative statement, identified by the use of “should,” “must,” “ought”)

Something expected in the future (identified by the use of “will,” “shall”)

A conditional idea (making use of “would”)

A question; if anything, a hypothesis is rather the presumed answer to a research question

An either/or guess (“maybe yes, maybe not”)

A lengthy explanation on how a research idea is rationalized

No statement under any of the preceding forms can be a valid hypothesis because none of them can be demonstrated by facts or actions (empirical evidence). Demonstration of any of those statements is either impossible or must rely on values, beliefs, perceptions, hunches, intuition, common sense, and so on, or a combination of the above. None of them helps the advancement of scientific knowledge because they depend on every individual researcher's perceptions and cannot be replicated.

Two examples may illustrate this point. “Caucasian men over 40 years old are more likely to commit suicide than any other demographic category” is a hypothesis, because membership to both the Caucasian men and the age categories can be clearly established, and occurrence of suicide can be tracked and observed. “Middle-aged Caucasian men would not commit suicide if they found more meaning in their lives” is not a hypothesis because as the adjective middle-aged does not mean the same to everyone, it is impossible to demonstrate that something will not occur in the future, and “the meaning of life” is a highly subjective idea that cannot be determined or measured without an observable, itemized alternative definition (known as operational definition).

Hypotheses often express relationships between two or more variables. A variable is an attribute that can be observed or somehow measured in an object of study. Variables in a hypothesis can be related as simply occurring together (correlation) or acting as causes and effects (causality). However, hypotheses do not necessarily relate variables; they can indeed simply attempt to describe or unveil an existing situation and the context (conditions) under which it occurs. The example provided above expresses a correlation among gender, ethnicity, age, and suicide. If we added to it that “Suicide is triggered by financial or emotional stress,” we would be suggesting a causality relationship between the variables stress and suicide. In addition, if we surmised that “Suicide is more likely to occur whenever there is economic crisis or political instability,” we would be creating a situational hypothesis wherein the societal context is more determinant than specific attributes observed among individuals to produce the outcome of increased occurrence of suicide.

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