Safe Seats

THE AMERICAN ELECTORAL process is designed to promote the power of the Democratic and Republican parties and discourage independent candidates and minority parties from seeking office. Safe seats are those in which members of Congress are re-elected year after year with little or no opposition. Every two years, Americans go to the polls to choose 435 members of the United States House of Representatives and one-third of the 100 Senate seats. When writing Article I of the United States Constitution, the Fram-ers said little about congressional elections, requiring only that each state legislature determine “times, places and manner of holding elections,” and specifying that House members serve two-year terms, and Senators six. Because many Americans vote by party label, or for those candidates with the highest name recognition and level of experience, incumbents are regularly returned to office.

Many political watchers insist that politicians who inhabit safe seats are not held accountable for their actions. While this may be true of political actions, it may not always follow when moral issues come into play. When it was discovered in 2006 that Florida Republican Mark Foley had been sending sexually explicit online messages to former congressional pages, his safe seat became highly vulnerable. Democrats took the high moral ground, accusing Republican House leaders of failing to act even when they were aware of Foley's behavior. The scandal helped to propel a number of Democrats into office in 2006, giving the party control of both houses of Congress, and a majority of gubernatorial and state legislative seats. It is assumed in political science that although Congress as a body is generally unpopular, this disapproval does not affect support for its individual members. In 2006, in the wake of several congressional scandals, a Washington Post-ABC News Poll revealed that congressional approval had declined by 32 percent. Nevertheless, 60 percent of respondents expressed support for their own members of Congress. A 2006 Congressional Quarterly survey found that 81 percent of incumbents were considered “safe.”

Between 1980 and 1990, 95 percent of incumbents were re-elected to office. In 1986, a record 98 percent of House incumbents won re-election. In 85 percent of those races, candidates won with at least 60 percent of the vote. Eight years later, voters, who were disgusted by the stalemate between President Bill Clinton and the Democratic Congress, helped to launch the so-called “Republican Revolution” in which the opposition party gained 54 House and eight Senate seats. In 1996, voters returned Clinton to the White House, but [Page 730]76.7 percent of congressional races were virtually a foregone conclusion, with less than 40 races considered up for grabs. In the off-year elections held two years later, serious competition was absent in 79.6 of all congressional elections, resulting in a re-election rate of 9 7 percent.

Once in office, incumbents have distinct advantages in addition to name recognition and party labels. Those who have been in Congress for many years have often risen to positions of leadership, and may chair important committees, promoting the interests of their states and districts. However, in recent years, even those members who are considered “safe” may be under pressure to raise increasingly large sums for re-election campaigns. This is particularly true of vulnerable members who are facing well-financed opposition. Because of their access to millions of dollars, political parties play a major role in re-electing incumbents.

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