Mitofsky, Warren Jay (1934–2006)

WARREN MITOFSKY WAS the founder of the survey research company Mitofsky International, which conducted national election polls in the United States and other countries. Mitofsky was born in Jersey City, the son of a caterer, and was educated at Guilford College, North Carolina, graduating in 1957.

Mitofsky worked for the Census Bureau where he helped design a number of surveys on aspects of poverty and other social issues. He then joined CBS where he was executive producer of the CBS election night broadcasts, and was executive director of the CBS News election and survey unit, 1967–90. During this time, Mitofsky worked with Joseph Waksburg, which resulted in them coming up with an efficient method of telephone sampling using random dial digits. With more and more people having unlisted telephone numbers, their system was regarded as far more accurate than calling only people whose numbers appeared in telephone directories.

In 1967, Mitofsky conducted the first ever U.S. exit poll in the Kentucky gubernatorial race, asking people whom they had voted for as they left the polling station, which showed that Louie B. Nunn was elected, the first [Page 425]Republican to hold that position in 20 years. Staging an exit poll in 1968 for the presidential election was much harder, but he did organize exit polls at subsequent elections. In every U.S. federal election 1990–2004, Mitof-sky conducted exit polls that covered the entire country. In the 1990 and 1992 elections, he conducted the polls for Voter Research & Surveys (which later became Voter News Service).

In the following year he founded Mitofsky International, and as well as conducting exit polls in the United States, he also conducted exit polls in Azerbaijan, Mexico, the Philippines, and Russia. His company was the only company to conduct polls for the Russian presidential elections in 1996 and 2000. In 1999, the American Association for Public Opinion Research presented him with its lifetime achievement award for his “continuing concern for survey quality.”

The Voter News Service was disbanded after problems over the 2000 and 2002 U.S. federal elections, and Mitofsky International, along with Edison Media Research, conducted exit polls for the Associated Press and television networks. There was considerable controversy over the polls conducted by Mitofsky during the 2004 U.S. presidential elections, with his exit polls showing John Kerry leading George W. Bush, giving credence to claims that there were serious problems with the election, especially in Ohio.

Some theorists believed that the exit poll recorded a more accurate result than that conducted when the votes were counted. However, Mitofsky dismissed this and even embarked on previously unknown self-criticism of his techniques. When later interviewed by PBS's NewsHour, Mitofsky said that it was possible that voters supporting John Kerry were more eager to participate when asked by exit pollsters than Bush voters. Some commentators wanted Mitofsky to reveal his polling data for Ohio on a precinct level, but Mitofsky refused to do this.

Throughout his career, Mitofsky was a well-known gossip, and was a good friend of newscasters Dan Rather and Walter Cronkite. He was also well known for his feuds and for years he argued over polling methodology with Jeff Alderman, who was the director of polling at ABC. He also rowed publicly with the pollster John Zogby, who described Mitofsky as a “cranky old man.” In return, Mitofsky described Zogby as a “self-promoter” and someone who used “voodoo” methodology. A stubborn man, and heavily opinionated, he conducted his last exit poll in Mexico in July 2006. He died on September 1, 2006, in New York City of an aortic aneurysm, aged 71.

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