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Midterm Elections

MIDTERM ELECTIONS IN the United States generally refer to a class of elections that fall in the middle of the presidential term, two years after the president is elected. The term itself implies a connection with the presidency; in the basic language of political science, the outcomes of midterm elections are assumed to be straw votes or indicators of the health of the president's popularity, the political health of the president's party, or the strength of the opposition party versus that of the presidents.

Midterm elections are held in even-numbered years on the Tuesday following the first Monday of November. Presidential candidacies never coincide with midterm elections. However, a number of other important races are decided during these elections. Voters elect all officeholders to the U.S. House of Representatives and approximately one-third of the membership to the U.S. Senate. In addition, these elections determine the outcomes of numerous state and local offices, particularly those of governors.

Over the past half century, the Democratic Party has been very successful in capitalizing on midterm elections to gain a partisan advantage in Congress. This is partially a function of the Republican Party's long-term control of the presidency. Historical patterns have demonstrated that the president's party typically loses seats in midterm elections. If these losses are grave enough, they may shift the partisan balance in Congress to the opposing party or make the seat distribution even more unfavorable to the party in control of the presidency.

The starkest example against this trend of midterm Democratic success occurred in 1994 when the Republicans gained control of the house by a large margin, ousting many prominent Democratic candidates in the process. One potential explanation for this successful Republican outcome is the Republican's strong support of the Contract with America. This document presented the voters with a fairly detailed picture of the types of issues and policies that would be addressed in Congress if the Republican Party were successful in their bid for office.

The Coattail Effect

Political scientists have proposed a variety of explanations for midterm losses by the presidential party. One explanation centers on the notion of presidential coat-tails. This theory suggests that down-ballot candidates of the same political affiliation as the president are likely to receive a surge in their vote share as a function of the popularity of the president and the propensity of voters to cast a straight-party ballot. Thus, congressional candidates and candidates for lower offices at the state and local level are likely to benefit from the president's coat-tails. However, once a presidential race is absent from the ballot, voters are less apt to use their presidential preference as a voting cue for other offices and the electoral fortunes of these candidates are likely to diminish, leading to a higher likelihood of defeat at the polls.

Although this is a prominent theory, some scholars have argued that the coattail phenomenon may not have as much explanatory power as it once did. In support of this belief, many studies have pointed to the increasing importance of incumbency for electoral success. As electoral outcomes have demonstrated, incumbents are often able to oust their opponent in an electoral competition, regardless of the president's popularity level. The simple presence of an incumbent may be enough to prevent a challenge, or to keep qualified challengers with previous political or party experience, out of the race. This is often the case because incumbents have the advantage of campaign experience, are adept at raising money, and can claim credit for constituency service and good public policy during their tenure. Congressional candidates also have the franking privilege, which allows them to send letters and newsletters to their constituents at no personal cost.

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