Mandate

A KEY COMPONENT of representation in any democratic political system is the participation of the public in elections. Public participation in the United States has been viewed as dismal, at best. Although participation in elections generally hovers around 50 percent in American national elections, and even fewer eligible citizens cast votes in elections at sub-national levels, partisan victors in nearly every election claim to have received a mandate to govern from the public. As elections in the United States have experienced a partisan resurgence since the early 1980s, partisan leaders have become increasingly willing to assert with great conviction that the public has spoken by electing members of their party. A mandate, then, can be defined as a statement from the public to elected officials through the electoral process that public policy ought to be headed in a certain direction, outlined by the victorious party's platform.

Not all elections carry an overwhelming message from the public that policy should head in a certain direction; mandates occur quite infrequently. In fact, Lawrence Grossback, David A.M. Peterson, and lames A. Stimson determine that only three elections since World War II have been identified as mandate elections. These include the 1964 presidential election, in which Lyndon Johnson was the beneficiary of a landslide victory that also carried over to his fellow Democratic partisans in Congress; the 1980 election in which Ronald Reagan was elected president by a wide margin over incumbent Democrat limmy Carter, and his fellow Republicans fared quite well in House, Senate, and gubernatorial elections; and the 1994 midterm elections, in which the Republican party gained control of both Houses of Congress with the “Contract with America.” While there is not scholarly consensus on the frequency with which mandates actually occur, few would argue that mandates are more than a rare occurrence.

One common thread among these elections, especially when compared to other elections, is a larger than average margin of victory. Lyndon Johnson and the Democrats in 1964 had an especially wide margin of victory, and the Republican victories in 1980 and 1994 were certainly above average. Margin of victory cannot account for the entire makeup of a mandate, however, because only the 1964 election is an unquestionable landslide.

Another factor that can lead to an electoral mandate is the element of surprise. Polls leading up to the 1980 election had Reagan and Carter in a virtual dead heat, and few expected a Republican victory of more than a few percentage points, or an increase of more than a few congressional seats in either house. In 1994, most observers were aware that Democrats were in trouble, but few expected the party to lose control of Congress. Perhaps the most critical component of a mandate is the perception and recognition that a mandate has occurred. This usually involves a concession from the losing party, and a change in behavior as a result of the election. Finally, a mandate perception is especially likely if the media continues to assert that a mandate has occurred, rather than downplaying the message sent in the electoral victory.

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