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Independent Voters

INDEPENDENT VOTERS ARE those who have registered to vote, but are not affiliated with a political party. In the District of Colombia and the 27 states where voters register by party, the number of Independents has grown during the last 20 years to one-third of the voter rolls. In the 23 states where voters do not register by party, those polled as to party affiliation report similar numbers.

Political pundits, the media, and polling firms have elevated the status ofthese non-affiliated voters (NAVs) heralding them as the “swing” vote and crediting them in post-election analysis as the cause of a win or a loss. Although a swing vote is typically a Democrat who votes Republican or a Republican who votes Democrat, in this regard swing suggests their vote is available to the candidate with the right message. Independents are often erroneously presented in news media, side-by-side with Democrats and Republicans, as though they were a political party with a shared ideology.

Identity of Independent Voters

Polling conducted by the Washington Post and ABC in July of 2002, and another by the Washington Post, Harvard University, and the Kaiser Family Foundation in 2007, indicate that Independents are not really independent.

In the 2007 study, Independents were assigned to one of five categories, of which disguised partisans and the disengaged comprised 48 percent of the polled Independents. Dislocated (the socially liberal/fiscally conservative) were 16 percent ofthese voters, with the disillusioned (angry voters) and deliberators (true swing voter) evenly divided among the remaining 36 percent. Much of this study mirrors the conclusions drawn in the 1992 book, The Myth of the Independentby Bruce E. Keith. When the disengaged are combined with the disillusioned, who are less inclined to vote, the study highlights that 42 percent are unlikely to participate in elections.

In the states that keep election returns by party and turnout, non-affiliated voters consistently under perform registered Democrats and Republicans by 20 points. The result makes sense, given that 18- to 25-year-olds, the segment of the population with the lowest election participation, fuel non-affiliated voter registration. Nevertheless, with Independent voters growing to one-third of the registered voters, it is critical to a winning strategy to know who these voters are, where they live, and how to effectively reach them.

Votes Owed

In one study involving two Oregon counties, Jackson and Lane, examined both issue-based and partisan elections 2001–07 to determine if non-affiliated voters performed predictably. In each of these counties, historic voting patterns indicated that Independents tracked partisan registration, precinct by precinct. Verifying the accuracy of this observed pattern was key to campaign strategies and targeting efforts.

Jackson County, located in southern Oregon, with a Republican-registration advantage of 12 points and Lane County, home of University of Oregon, with a Democratic-registration advantage of 18 points offered a wide array of voters and voting history. The study began by assigning each precinct in each county with a new registration percentage for Republicans and Democrats using only the two parties. Independents and third-party registrants were then assigned to either the Democratic or Republican columns based on these new registration numbers. “Votes owed” the partisan candidates were determined by the new registration percent and turnout.

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