Gallup, George (1901–84)

POWERED BY THE mathematical tool of statistics, a myriad of technical analyses for predicting election results emerged during the 20th century. Pioneering much of the practical science behind polling techniques was a statistician raised in the American midwest, George Horace Gallup. His work and that of his Gallup Organization had far-reaching effects on the prediction of election results and the science of polling. Gallup was not the inventor of the poll, but he did legitimize it. His credibility for the scientific opinion poll was established in 1935, when he bet that he could predict the winner of the 1936 presidential election between Franklin Roosevelt and Alf Landon.

Gallup predicted the surprising Roosevelt victory more accurately than other leading polls, such as that conducted by the Literary Digest. Based on the predictive power of random sampling discovered by mathematician Simon Laplace (1749–1827), Gallup believed his approach would produce more accurate polling results. Gallup's 3,000 randomly selected interviews turned out to be more powerful than the 10 million people polled by the Literary Digest. Using a technique called quota sampling, where groups of people were canvassed based on a predetermined representative mix of American households, Gallup took advantage of the mathematical fact that the size of the poll is less important to its accuracy than the poll's randomness. He became famous when his prediction, with an error of 6.8 percent, proved superior to all others. However, Gallup's “quota-sampling” methodology was way off in falsely predicting Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman in the 1948 presidential election. Since 1958, most pollsters, including Gallup, have abandoned quota sampling for more reliable random sampling.

In 1940, Gallup wrote The Puke of Democracy, articulating his Utopian belief in the power of polling. He felt that scientific samples of public attitudes and feelings would give voice to every common citizen in society. Polling would be like to a national town meeting, and many agreed. Gallup believed democracy was strengthened as the peoples' voice transcended the traditional power of lobbyists and influence peddlers. Gallup's polls gave democracy a voice.

Gallup's popularity soared and he was engaged by Hollywood to survey the types of films people enjoyed. During his career, he worked for RKO Radio Pictures, David Selznick, Samuel Goldwyn, and Walt Disney. The predictive power of scientific polls applied to Hollywood augmented the studio's less successful methods of reading fan mail and gleaning feedback from mailers sent to civic groups and a variety of clubs around the country. However, these techniques could not reach [Page 270]the entire spectrum of filmgoers, in terms of age, sex, income, and occupation. Gallup applied census data and his experienced interviewers from political polling to develop a scientific profile of moviegoers. His film surveys used statistical sampling synthesized with carefully constructed questionnaires to capture audience preferences and pose questions about film projects and viewed movies. Before his political polling insights, Gallup was employed as the Director of Research for the Young & Rubicam advertising agency. It was there that he developed methods for analyzing people's reactions to advertising in print media and radio broadcasts. One major result was uncovering the opinions of working-class people and teenagers, groups the studios had overlooked. In fact, through Gallup's polling, it was found that teenagers bought more movie tickets than any other demographic.

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