Florida

FLORIDA IS CONSIDERED a political bellwether for the United States, not simply because Florida is often a battleground state in presidential elections, but also because Florida's electoral alignments are a microcosm of the nation's. Florida is closely divided along partisan lines, and elections are often decided by a relatively small group of swing voters known locally as Blue Dog Democrats. Blue Dogs are rural, white, traditional southerners who register as Democrats, but often vote Republican. Nationally, this group has long been important in determining which political party wins presidential elections in the states of the Old Confederacy.

In turn, whichever party wins the south usually wins the presidency. The decisive role of the south in electoral politics explains why half of all U.S. presidents elected since 1964 have been southerners (Lyndon Johnson, limmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush). However, for the past decade Florida has experienced rapid population growth among non-Cuban Hispanics, who are tending to register and vote Democratic, making Blue Dogs less influential. For Republicans to maintain their hold on Florida, which is essential to their winning coalition nationally, they will have to attract support from non-Cuban Hispanics. Otherwise, Florida is likely to shift to the Democrats, which would make it much more likely for Democrats to win presidential [Page 247]elections regardless of which way the vote goes in the rest of the south.

From the end of Reconstruction in 1877, until the 1950s, Florida and other southern states were firmly aligned with the Democratic Party. The Republican Party's resurgence nationally after World War II depended considerably on Florida. Florida was one of the first southern states to begin voting Republican in state and national elections, and it remains one of the south's most Republican states. Florida has voted Republican in three out of every four presidential elections since 1952, and in 1998 it became the first southern state since Reconstruction to have the governor's office and both houses of the state legislature under Republican control.

Still, Republican power in Florida has always been tenuous. Although Republicans control the top tier of government, Florida is a competitive two-party state that favors centrist Democrats over Republicans in many national and statewide elections. In the 2000 election, this was demonstrated by the success of Democrat Bill Nelson over Republican Bill McCollum in the U.S. Senate race. It was also evident in voter registration. Going into the 2000 election, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in Florida by over 340,000 registered voters, a numerical advantage that, since 2000, has remained largely unchanged despite Florida's rapid population growth.