Crossley, Archibald (1896–1985)

ARCHIBALD CROSSLEY WAS a public opinion analyst who, with Elmo Roper and George Gallup, pioneered public opinion polling techniques. In 1936, Crossley correctly predicted the victory of the incumbent president, Franklin Roosevelt, in the presidential election, but 12 years later erroneously forecast a victory for Thomas E. Dewey, producing a famous newspaper headline.

Archibald Maddock Crossley was born on December 7, 1896, at Fieldsboro, New Jersey, the fifth child of Joseph Crossley, an iron manufacturer, born in England, and Martha Crossley, also from England. Archibald grew up in Bordertown, New Jersey, and went to Princeton University. He left before graduation to join the U.S. forces in World War I, but became ill and did not serve, returning to Princeton many years later, and completing a psychology degree in 1950. Crossley lived at Princeton from 1923 until his death. He started work in the research department of an advertising company in Philadelphia, and then moved to the Literary Digest as assistant research director. In 1926, he founded his own research company, Crossley Inc., with its headquarters in Manhattan, New York. His first major project was to determine the number of people who listened to particular radio stations.

Crossley's first entry into presidential election polling was in 1936 when he was hired by the Hearst Newspapers to try to compete with Roper Polls used by Fortune magazine. In conducting these polls, Crossley became particularly concerned with if people were more likely to vote in a particular way after telling a pollster their initial choice. The Crossley Poll, which was syndicated and appeared in more than 50 newspapers in 1936, foretold the victory of Roosevelt over Alf Landon. It was not long before Crossley, Roper, and George Gallup started meeting to bet on who would be able to get closest to the actual results. Crossley was the first pollster who also asked people questions (other than voting preference) to determine the reliability of their responses.

He continued polling in 1940, 1944, and, in 1948, his poll, as well as those by Gallup and Roper, predicted that Thomas Dewey would defeat Truman in the presidential elections. In 1954, Crossley Inc. was merged with Stewart, Dougall & Associates to form Crossley Surveys, which became a subsidiary of Westat Inc. In 1962, Crossley retired from active polling and started work on research polling methods. He married Dorothy Fox who died in 1983. They had a son and two daughters. Archibald Crossley died May 1, 1985.