Coattail Effect

Drastic Decline

The coattail effect has drastically declined over the past century. The influence of party organizations has waned, as they no longer hold a monopoly on campaign information and mobilization of voters. Accordingly, partisanship has weakened, and voters seldom link candidates based on partisan associations alone. The increase in split ballots for president and congress and the regular occurrence of divided government are two manifestations of the decline in the coattail effect. Additionally, presidential coattails are weaker in House races than in Senate races because the latter are more competitive, candidate-centered, and with greater campaign spending, more visible and independent of the presidential campaign.

The coattail effect has significant implications for legislative behavior after the elections. Legislators use election results, not only from their own races, but also from the presidential race, to gauge public opinion in their districts. If they perform significantly better than the president, they will likely show legislative independence. In the case of the coattail effect, the president outperforms congresspersons who are consequently more responsive to the former's policy agenda. Additionally, coattail voting helps the president replace opposition party congresspersons with fellow party members who are more favorable to the presidents policies. Thus, coat-tails result in improved cooperation between the executive and legislative branches for as long as the president remains popular.