Catholic Vote

CATHOLICS ARE THE most important voting group in the electorate. In the last two decades, Catholics have behaved statistically similar to the rest of the electorate. They are the median voter group. Catholics form 26 percent of the electorate and contain 70 percent of the largest minority, Hispanics. Catholics previously associated with the Democratic Party have left its ranks in large numbers; however, they have not joined the Republican Party at the same rate. After the 1960s, the Catholics became swing voters capable of voting predominantly for both Republican candidates such as Nixon and Reagan, and for Democratic ones such as Carter and Clinton. Catholics are also concentrated in crucial states: in the midwest, California, Florida, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut.

The Catholic vote was traditionally the immigrant vote. A large increase in the Catholic population was most notable between 1840 and 1860, when it increased from 663,000 (3.9 percent) to 1,606,000 (6.9 percent), and between 1880 and 1910 when it jumped from six million (12.5 percent) to 16 million (17.7percent). The split between the so-called natives and immigrants in the 19th century ran mainly along religious lines. Protestant locals pitched against the Catholic immigrants. With the demise of the Federalists in the 1830s, the few politically active native Catholics had split their vote between the new Whig and Democratic parties. Yet, given the growing dominance of the culturally and religiously alienated immigrants in the overall composition of the Catholics, a strategic move by the Democrats to emphasize religious freedom led most Catholics to choose the Democratic Party for their new political home.