Europe

Europe consists of countries that differ in history, geography, climate, political system, and health care system. Since the falling apart of the former Soviet Union and the former Yugoslavia, the number of countries has increased. Since May 2004, the European Union (EU) numbers 25 countries. In that year, the total population of the EU amounted to 457 million inhabitants. The EU does not include several countries—some in Western Europe (e.g., Norway, Switzerland), some in Eastern Europe (e.g., Rumania, Bulgaria), and many of the newly formed countries (e.g., Croatia, Belarus). The share of older persons (age 65 years and older) in the EU population is 16.4% on average. This share is expected to nearly double to 29.9% by 2050.

Figure 1 Populations Age 65 Years and Older in 2004 and Projections for 2025 and 2050 for Selected Countries

Source: Eurostat. Population Projections 20042050. Eurostat News Release 48/2005. European Communities, 2005.

Note: D = Germany; S = Sweden; I = Italy; NL = the Netherlands; IRL = Ireland.

The heterogeneity across European countries manifests itself in the widely different shares of the population age 65 years and older as well as in the widely different rates of increase in this share (Figure 1). In 2004, the proportions of older persons ranged from 11.1% in Ireland to 19.2% in Italy. The expected increases by 2050 range from a modest 7.1 percentage points in Sweden to a spectacular 18.7 percentage points in Spain, resulting in a range from 22.1% in Luxembourg to 35.6% in Spain as the lowest and highest expected proportions, respectively, of the population age 65 years and older. Moreover, the share of the oldest-old population (age 80 years and older) is expected to nearly triple by 2050, with the highest proportion expected in Italy (14.1%).

The variety in these demographic projections stems from differences in fertility, mortality, and migration. Among these, fertility has the most impact. First, the post–World War II baby boom differed across countries in intensity and duration. For instance, in the Netherlands the baby boom lasted until 1970, whereas in other countries it was over before 1960. Second, the countries differ in their rates of decline in fertility since the 1960s. For instance, in the Netherlands the fertility rate dropped from 2.8% to 1.6%. This drop has been steepest in the Mediterranean countries. Migration is expected to have the greatest impact in the new EU member states, resulting in a decline of the total population and a relatively large increase in the proportion age 65 years and older. Although mortality at older ages shows consistent declines, the rate of decline is again different across countries and even shows increases in Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, and several Eastern European countries. France shows the most consistent declines.