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Demography of Aging

Whereas demography is the study of the size, composition, and territorial distribution of the population, demography of aging refers to the changing proportion of older adults in the population. In the United States, fertility trends during the 20th century declined steadily, with the notable exception of the post–World War II baby boom from 1946 to 1964. Mortality rates also declined throughout the century, but in a very different way. During the first half of the century, mortality declined fastest among the very young as improved sanitation and hygiene decreased the rates of infectious disease. During the second half of the cen tury, mortality declined fastest among middle-aged and older adults with improvements in surgical techniques and treatments for a variety of diseases, most notably cardiovascular disease. Both the fertility and mortality trends resulted in an older population as more people survived infancy and childhood during the early part of the century and aged longer due to decreased old age mortality. During the 21st century, the U.S. population will continue to age as the baby boomers begin to reach 65 years of age in 2011 and survive to mid-century.

Size and Location of the U.S. Population

In the United States in 2000, persons age 65 years and older made up approximately 13% of the population. The age of 65 years is important because that is the time when people traditionally retire from paid employment to receive income through the Social Security program. By 2100, the population age 65 years and older will constitute approximately 23% of the population (Figure 1). Of particular concern is the potential growth in the population age 85 years and older because they are the most likely to require medical and social services. In 2000, those age 85 years and older represented approximately 2% of the population; by 2100, this proportion will more than triple to approximately 7%.

Older adults live in all 50 states and constitute approximately 13% of the U.S. population, but they are concentrated in certain areas. Table 1 shows the 10 states with the highest percentages of persons age 65 years and older in 2000 and those projected for 2030. Not surprisingly, Florida is the oldest state, with 17.6% of its residents age 65 years and older. Other states in the top 10 are diverse states such as West Virginia, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Maine. By 2030, Florida will still be the oldest state, with 27.1% of its population age 65 years and older. New to the top 10 will be Wyoming, New Mexico, Montana, Vermont, and Delaware. States no longer in the top 10 will include Pennsylvania, Iowa, Rhode Island, Arkansas, and Connecticut. The age structure of these states can change due to both in-migration of retirees, as in Florida's case, and out-migration of young adults to urban areas for economic opportunity, as is probably the case with Iowa.

Figure 1 Older Adults' Projected Proportions of the U.S. Population, 2000 to 2100: Ages 65 Years and Older and 85 Years and Older

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005.

Life Expectancy

One of the major reasons for the explosive growth of the older population during the 20th century was the increase in the average life expectancy, which is the average number of years a person can expect to live from a specified age (usually birth). During the last half of the 20th century, life expectancy increased for both men and women, although women's life expectancy was longer than men's at every period. At birth, men and women in 1950 could expect to live 65.6 and 71.1 years, respectively. By 2000, they could expect to live 74.1 and 79.5 years, respectively (Figure 2). Life expectancy also differs by race/ethnicity (Figure 3). Average life expectancy for Whites at birth was 69.1 years in 1950. By 2000, it had grown to 77.4 years. Average life expectancy for African Americans at birth grew from 63.9 years in 1960 (1950 data not available) to 71.7 years in 2000; African Americans have participated in improvements in life expectancy, but not relative to Whites.

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