Africa

Africa is a beautiful and aging continent. It currently has similar numbers of persons age 60 years and older as do Latin America and the Caribbean, but Africa has the lowest percentage of this population group when compared with the other major regions. Yet over the next 25 years, the percentage increase of older persons in Africa will be greater than that in Europe, North America, and Oceania. By 2050, close to 200 million older persons will live in Africa and life expectancies at birth will exceed 65 years on average (Table 1). Unlike the other continents and major regions, the male/female sex ratio will increase and dependency ratios will decrease over the next 45 years. Total fertility rates will continue to drop in countries across the continent—with northern and southern Africa having lower rates (the current average is fewer than three children per woman) than middle, eastern, and western Africa (the current average is more than five children per woman)—and by 2050 the continent will remain the only major region with an average total fertility rate above the replacement level. Combined with Africa being the only major area with an average crude death rate that will decrease over the next 40 years, the demography of the continent will certainly change.

Public health successes during the past century have contributed to global population aging, and in Africa this has occurred despite devastating epidemics, poverty, natural and manmade disasters, the residual impacts of colonization, and violent conflict. This is also despite 26 African countries having total health expenditures of less than 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) to deal with a huge portion of the world's burden of disease. Africa includes 25 of the world's 26 countries with life expectancies of less than 50 years and includes all 3 countries with life expectancies of less than 40 years. The average life expectancy for both sexes combined in sub-Saharan Africa will increase from approximately 45 years currently to 63 years by 2050, resulting in the median age increasing from 18 to 26 years during this same period. For northern Africa, the average life [Page 14]expectancy will increase 10 years, from 67 to nearly 77 years, with the median age increasing from 23 to 36 years. The rate of increase in older persons in Africa over the next 25 years will be more rapid than during the past five decades—and will exceed that of many other regions.

The large number of older persons, pace of aging, and factors related to growing old in Africa bolster a case for greater attention to be given to the situation of this population group, especially when one considers that the triumph of economic well-being preceding aging in the more developed world will not be accompanying aging populations in Africa.

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