The 2010 general election was one of the most remarkable in recent history. Taking place against the backdrop of enormous economic and political turbulence, it offered, for the first time since 1997, when New Labour ousted the Conservatives, the real possibility of a change in government. As polling day approached, Gordon Brown's Labour party was generally expected to lose its parliamentary majority, and David Cameron's Conservatives were generally expected to make large gains. But beyond these vague expectations, there were mountains of doubt and uncertainty. A small number of optimistic Conservative supporters expected the party to win outright, but almost everyone else anticipated a hung parliament with no party winning an absolute majority of MPs. Such possibilities fuelled the uncertainty. If the Conservatives did sufficiently well, Cameron might try to form a minority government. Otherwise, Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats might end up holding the balance of power, and Clegg would then have to choose between forming a coalition with Labour or the Conservatives. Labour was assumed to be the Liberal Democrats' obvious ideological bedfellow; but everything would depend on the results and the post-election parliamentary arithmetic.

The 2010 campaign began with the Conservatives enjoying a healthy lead over Labour and the prospect of the Tories consolidating their advantage. Then came the televised prime ministerial debates, the first such debates in British electoral history. To general amazement – and to the two major parties' consternation – the star of the first debate was Nick Clegg. His performance generated a terrific boost in support for the Liberal Democrats and turned the election on its head. Thereafter, the 2010 campaign appeared to become a genuine three-way contest, with the Liberal Democrats sometimes leapfrogging Labour into second place in the polls and very occasionally moving into first place. In the circumstances, there was general astonishment when the exit polls suggested that the Liberal Democrats would improve on their 2005 performance by just one point and actually lose around six seats.

The exit polls, however, proved correct, and Liberal Democrat hopes of progress were dashed. More importantly, the exit polls accurately predicted that the Conservatives would become the largest single party but fall short of a majority. For the first time since February 1974, a general election thus resulted in a hung parliament. Whatever the politicians had said before polling day, it was now up to them, not the voters, to thrash out a deal and [Page xiv]decide who would govern. After five days of bargaining, first between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats and then, briefly, between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, the logic of numbers prevailed. The Liberal Democrats took five cabinet posts in a Conservative-dominated coalition. David Cameron became the new prime minister, Nick Clegg became the deputy prime minister. Almost immediately, the coalition set about reducing the burgeoning government deficit and making plans for significant political reforms.

This book tells the story of this remarkable and landmark election. Britain at the Polls 2010 is the ninth book in a series that has described and analysed every election since February 1974 with the exception of the 1987 election. As with previous volumes, this book's principal aim is to provide general readers, students of British politics and professional political scientists, in North America and Europe as well as in the United Kingdom, with an analysis of the major social, economic and political developments during the 2005–10 period, and with an assessment of the impact of these developments on the election outcome.

General elections are not just stories in their own right, of course. They are also chapters in the unfolding story of British democracy. Britain at the Polls 2010, like previous volumes, therefore aims to provide readers with informed reflections on the election's long-term significance. Other books can be expected to provide a blow-by-blow account of the formal campaign, including: The British General Election of 2010, written by Dennis Kavanagh and Philip Cowley; Britain Votes 2010, edited by Andrew Geddes and Jonathan Tonge; and Political Communications: The British General Election Campaign of 2010, edited by Dominic Wring, Roger Mortimore and Simon Atkinson. As usual, The Times Guide to the House of Commons provides a definitive work of reference for the actual results, and the British Election Study, currently based at the University of Essex, will provide a detailed survey-based account of voting behaviour.

As with previous volumes in the series, Britain at the Polls 2010 contains chapters on the chief protagonists and the actual result. Nicholas Allen in Chapter 1 provides a detailed overview of the major developments in British politics since 2005, with a particular focus on the trials and tribulations of the Labour government and its two prime ministers, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. In Chapter 2, Tim Bale and Paul Webb examine the Conservatives' response to their third successive defeat in 2005 and analyse how David Cameron made his party electable. In Chapter 3, Thomas Quinn and Ben Clements analyse the fortunes of the Liberal Democrats, explaining why the party managed to get through three-and-a-half leaders after the 2005 election and why Nick Clegg was able to bring his party into a coalition with the Conservatives. And in Chapter 8, Ron Johnston and Charles Pattie explain why the Conservatives won the most seats in the new House [Page xv]of Commons but not an overall majority, with a particular emphasis on the impact of local campaigning and the workings of Britain's first-past-the-post voting system.

Other chapters cover distinctive features of the 2010 election and relevant long-term developments in British politics. In Chapter 4, Michael Moran, Sukhdev Johal and Karel Williams analyse the impact of the financial crisis on both the election and the structure of Britain's economy, the dominant issue in 2010. In Chapter 5, Oliver Heath examines the gulf between ordinary voters and the political class and how the 2009 parliamentary expenses scandal made this gulf a central concern at the election. In Chapter 6, John Bartle, Sebastian Dellepiane Avellaneda and James Stimson describe long-term changes in the British public's policy mood and the significance of popular preferences surrounding the size of government and its implications for the new coalition's deficit reduction plan. In Chapter 7, Nicholas Allen, Judith Bara and John Bartle describe how British politics finally came to embrace televised election debates and analyse the debates' impact on the campaign and outcome. In Chapter 9, Philip Norton charts the formation of Britain's first post-war coalition government and surveys the wider postelection landscape.

As editors, we would like to acknowledge and thank the support of several people in connection with this volume. John Bercow kindly gave his time and read through the manuscript before penning his foreword. David Mainwaring at Sage enthusiastically supported us throughout the production of this book. Graham Keilloh of Ipsos MORI, Caroline Lawes of Comres and Anthony Wells of YouGov all contributed their time and knowledge at a specially convened workshop in London, where many of the authors met and discussed their ideas. We are especially grateful to the Faculty of History and Social Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, for providing the funds to make that workshop possible. Finally, several colleagues read through draft chapters and provided helpful feedback. Some have preferred to remain anonymous, but we would like to single out Anthony King, Katja Mirwaldt, Thomas Quinn, Warren Ward and Steffen Weiss, who commented on our own chapters. Those familiar with the Britain at the Polls series will be aware that this is the first book not to contain a chapter by Tony King. As editor of the series since 1992, Tony set an exacting standard in scholarship and style. Although he was not formally involved in this volume, his example, advice and guidance were invaluable.