The SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations offers a comprehensive overview of research processes in social science - from the ideation and design of research projects, through the construction of theoretical arguments, to conceptualization, measurement, and data collection, and quantitative and qualitative empirical analysis - exposited through 65 major new contributions from leading international methodologists. Each chapter surveys, builds upon, and extends the modern state of the art in its area. Following through its six-part organization, undergraduate and graduate students, researchers and practicing academics will be guided through the design, methods, and analysis of issues in Political Science and International Relations: Part One: Formulating Good Research Questions and Designing Good Research Projects; Part Two: Methods of Theoretical Argumentation; Part Three: Conceptualization and Measurement; Part Four: Large-Scale Data Collection and Representation Methods; Part Five: Quantitative-Empirical Methods; Part Six: Qualitative and Mixed Methods.
Chapter 32: A Principled Approach to Time Series Analysis
Everything is dynamic. Mass attitudes, public policy outcomes, state budgets, and international conflicts operate over, or in, time. The applied time series analyst's goal is to answer questions about dynamic relationships through a process of theory development, model specification, hypothesis testing, and inference. However, political reality is complex, and our theories are rarely rich enough to dictate specific dynamic specifications. Even when theory is rich, model estimation is constrained by the available data.
The challenges posed by dynamic modeling have fostered a number of misguided approaches to time series analysis. One approach treats the dynamic features of the data as a nuisance. ...