The study of voting behaviour remains a vibrant sub-discipline of political science. The Handbook of Electoral Behaviour is an authoritative and wide ranging survey of this dynamic field, drawing together a team of the world's leading scholars to provide a state-of-the-art review that sets the agenda for future study. Taking an interdisciplinary approach and focusing on a range of countries, the handbook is composed of eight parts. The first five cover the principal theoretical paradigms, establishing the state of the art in their conceptualisation and application, and followed by chapters on their specific challenges and innovative applications in contemporary voting studies. The remaining three parts explore elements of the voting process to understand their different effects on vote outcomes. The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour is an essential benchmark publication for advanced students, researchers and practitioners in the fields of politics, sociology, psychology and research methods.
Chapter 37: Political Markets
As long as there have been elections people have tried to predict their results and, over the past three decades, researchers have made considerable progress in developing and improving methods for how to forecast elections. For example, the accuracy of predictions based on standard vote intention polls has been improved by using statistical techniques to project their results to election day (e.g. Erikson and Wlezien, 2008; Campbell, 1996; Ford et al., this Volume). Researchers have also developed econometric models that provide long-term forecasts by using information that is available months before the election, such as the state of the economy, the popularity of the president, or the time the incumbent party has held the White ...