The study of voting behaviour remains a vibrant sub-discipline of political science. The Handbook of Electoral Behaviour is an authoritative and wide ranging survey of this dynamic field, drawing together a team of the world's leading scholars to provide a state-of-the-art review that sets the agenda for future study. Taking an interdisciplinary approach and focusing on a range of countries, the handbook is composed of eight parts. The first five cover the principal theoretical paradigms, establishing the state of the art in their conceptualisation and application, and followed by chapters on their specific challenges and innovative applications in contemporary voting studies. The remaining three parts explore elements of the voting process to understand their different effects on vote outcomes. The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour is an essential benchmark publication for advanced students, researchers and practitioners in the fields of politics, sociology, psychology and research methods.
Chapter 35: Econometric Approaches to Forecasting
Econometric Approaches to Forecasting
We are all interested in the future, for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives.
(Criswell, movie Plan 9 from Outer Space, 1959)
In our daily lives we are surrounded by forecasts. Is it going to rain today? How will the local sports team perform in tonight's game? Which movie is more likely to win the Oscar this year? How will we enjoy today's meal at the restaurant? How bad is the flu virus going to be this season? These are but a small sample of the predictions which we hear around us, or which we can make ourselves, ...