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What Do We Know about Democratization after Twenty Years?

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This essay synthesizes the results of the large number of studies of late 20th-century democratization published during the last 20 years. Strong evidence supports the claims that democracy is more likely in more developed coun- tries and that regime transitions of all kinds are more likely during economic downturns. Very few of the other arguments advanced in the transitions litera- ture, however, appear to be generally true. This study proposes a theoretical model, rooted in characteristics of different types of authoritarian regimes, to explain many of the differences in democratization experience across cases in different regions. Evidence drawn from a data set that includes 163 authoritarian regimes offers preliminary support for the model proposed.

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‘What Do We Know about Democratization after Twenty Years?’, BarbaraGeddesAnnual Review of Political Science, 2 (1999): 115–144. Copyright © 1999 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved. Republished with permission of Annual Reviews, Inc.; permission conveyed through Copyright Clearance Center, Inc.

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