• Summary
  • Contents

NEW TO THIS EDITION: • Provides an overview of Donald Trump’s campaign to help students understand the context and factors that led to him winning the election. • Thorough analysis of the role that media and money played in the elections provides a framework for understanding election results. •Provides insights into Congressional elections, their outcomes, and impact. KEY FEATURES: • On an incredibly fast production cycle, this volume publishes just 5 months after the election, bringing needed insight and analysis of the 2016 elections. • Tables, figures, and maps effectively display data and data analysis.

The Meaning of the 2016 Election: The President as Minority Leader
9 The meaning of the 2016 election: The president as minority leader
Andrew Rudalevige

The “Time for Change” model constructed by political scientist Alan Abramowitz uses just three variables to predict the outcome of presidential elections: the second-quarter annualized change in gross domestic product (GDP), the incumbent president’s job approval rating, and a dummy variable penalizing an incumbent party seeking a third (or more) term. President Barack Obama’s approval rating as the summer of 2016 began hovered around the 50 percent mark. U.S. GDP increased 1.4 percent from March to June, after a tiny 0.8 percent rise in the previous quarter.

These were not terrible numbers. But they were not so robust as to give the ...

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