Handbook of International Rivalries

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Edited by: William R. Thompson & David Dreyer

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    Introduction

    Information about interstate rivalries is encountered on a daily basis but people rarely choose to categorize the behaviors as rivalries in action. In recent years, for example, U.S. and Chinese ships and planes encountered one another in and around the South China Sea. China had 2,000 missiles aimed at Taiwan. India and Pakistan tensions increased whenever one or both sides engaged in military maneuvers near their border or, alternatively, when Kashmiris resisted Indian rule. Russia and the United States competed to route Central Asian oil pipelines through or away from Russian soil. Britain and Argentina continued to haggle over the fate of the Falklands/Malvinas Islands that contain few people, a number of sheep, and a strategic location.

    In 2010 North Korea was accused of sinking a South Korean naval vessel and later bombarded a South Korean island. In both cases, North Korea responded to South Korean accusations with threats to destroy Seoul. Ethiopia continued to war with Eritrea over boundaries while both intermittently intervened in neighboring Somalia. Venezuela threatened to cut off oil to the United States if the United States did not dissuade its ally, Colombia, from attacking neighboring Venezuela. Although Egypt and Israel appeared unlikely to go to war with each other again in the near future, their relationship was still regarded as one of “cold peace.”1

    All of these pairs of hostile states are called rivalries. Interstate rivalries encompass situations in which two states categorize each other as threatening competitors in international politics. The degree of threat is sufficient for both sides to perceive the other side as an enemy. However, the two states are also likely to belong roughly to the same capability class or category, although there are various exceptions such as Iraq and Kuwait, or China and Taiwan. By and large, major and minor powers do not become rivals and when they do, the rivalry is unlikely to last for a long period of time. Threatening competitors, enemy identification, and roughly similar capabilities thus are three definitional requirements analysts can use to identify whether a rivalry is operative.1

    The point is that not all conflicting states are rivals.1 A very small state adjacent to a very large and powerful state is rarely competitive with the more powerful neighbor. Two states with asymmetrical capabilities can certainly become embroiled in conflict, but there is some probability that the weaker state ultimately will be forced to yield to the stronger state.1 In this respect, the outcome is fairly predictable and often not long in coming. While there have been asymmetrical rivalries (such as China-Vietnam or the United States-Cuba), it is roughly similar capabilities that contribute a great deal to the inability to resolve disputes and their consequent longevity, among other things such as a great deal of accompanying psychological processes (misperceptions, stereotypes, mistrust, suspicion, paranoia) that build up over time.

    Asymmetry

    One way to look at the problem of asymmetry can be illustrated by considering northeast Asia. Relations between North Korea and both South Korea and the United States have been fairly consistently conflictual since at least 1950. North and South Korea are rivals over which state represents Korea after it was divided following the defeat of Japan—which had occupied Korea—in World War II. North Korea attempted to conquer South Korea in 1950 and has made occasional threats to repeat its effort since U.S. and Chinese intervention in 1950 led to the restoration of what had been a short-lived status quo. The inter-Korean relationship is not fully symmetrical in capabilities. The northern state has the larger army and, now, nuclear weapons, as well as China as a backer. The southern state has a much stronger economy, much better technology, and the United States as an ally. North Korea threatens to invade the south. Southern economic success threatens the continued survival of the northern regime. Yet they both remain small or minor powers and, in this case, rivals.

    In contrast, the United States and North Korea are not rivals. U.S. military, technological, and economic capabilities are vastly superior to anything North Korea can muster. In this respect, North Korea views the United States as a superior and threatening enemy. What North Korea can do is threaten to make trouble on the Korean peninsula or in its immediate vicinity, which U.S. decision makers would prefer not to happen. So far, North Korea cannot threaten to attack United States territory directly. Yet North Korea is but one of the foreign policy problems faced by U.S. decision makers. Conceivably, the United States could even walk away from its Korean problems. North Korea and South Korea do not possess the same option.

    When two states located close to one another in space and roughly equal in power are reported to be in serious conflict in a newspaper or other media, there is some likelihood that the states regard each other as rivals.1 One good reason for this is that most states are unlikely to develop an intensely conflictual relationship with most other states. Most states are simply too far away to come into conflict with one another in the pursuit of their respective goals and preferences. The states that collide in international space tend to do so repeatedly, especially if they are unable to resolve the conflicts. To the extent that the conflicts persist, the two states in question look at, and treat, each other in ways that are different from the way in which most states interact. They regard each other's diplomatic and military maneuvers with considerable suspicion. Past defeats and victories are lamented or celebrated. Future attacks or threats are anticipated. As a consequence, the two states surround themselves in a cognitive web of intensifying antagonism, mistrust, and threat expectation that makes future conflict all the more likely.

    Thus, rivals become disproportionately likely to become engaged in conflict. Long-standing and significant territorial disputes tend to involve rivals. Long-running conflicts over Kashmir (Pakistan and India) or Palestine (Israel versus Egypt, Syria, and Jordan, among others) dominated the headlines of the second half of the twentieth century. Acute positional competitions between major powers also tend to become rivalries. The once highly prominent cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union is a prime example. This example also suggests just how extensive the effects of rivalry can be. The cold war, at its height, seemed to influence everything else going on in international politics. Nor would it be an exaggeration to say that the very survival of the planet hinged on the outcome of this particular rivalry.

    Not surprisingly, then, wars tend to be fought between rivals. Table I.1 lists the recent inventory of warfare encompassing nearly 200 years of combat and spanning 1823 to 2003. After dating the conflict in the first column, the second column lists wars fought between participant rivals, which are identified in the fourth column. Column three lists the wars not fought between rivals. In summary, seventy-four of ninety-five wars listed (78 percent) involved rivals on opposing sides.1 Moreover, up until the first decade of the twenty-first century, rivals were increasingly likely to monopolize interstate warfare. In 1816 through 1850, three of six wars (50 percent) encompassed opposing rivals. Between 1851 and 1900, rivals paired off in sixteen of twenty-five wars (64 percent). The first half of the twentieth century (1901–1950) saw rivals confronting each other in twenty-four of twenty-nine wars (83 percent), while in the second half of the century (1951–2000), almost all wars (thirty-one of thirty-three or 94 percent) involved antagonistic rivals. Only in the first decade of the twenty-first century has this trend line not been continued. But then the first half of the twenty-first century is still young.

    One principal reason for examining rivalries analytically, then, is that they constitute significant forms of conflict. Yet, as has been stressed above, rivalries are not synonymous with all conflict. As demonstrated in the list of wars, some wars do not involve clashing rivals. Many of the wars without rivals are situations in which a strong state invades a much weaker state for various reasons (for instance, the nineteenth-century Anglo-Persian or Franco-Mexican wars, or the twentieth-century invasions of Hungary, Afghanistan, or Iraq). Even those confrontations that involve clashing rivals are not explicable solely in terms of the rivalries involved. The Korean War is one example in which some of the participants were rivals and some were not. World Wars I and II offer further examples of the same phenomenon in which allies of rivals ended up fighting each other, in addition to the intra-rivalry confrontations.1

    There is more to conflict than rivalry alone but there is also more to rivalry than a label for some types of participants in conflict. Thompson1 notes three other reasons for looking at rivalries other than their prominence in the annals of interstate conflict: historical dynamics, recidivism, and complex interdependence. Imagine two states that have never clashed before and compare such a hypothetical pair with two that have clashed for one hundred years. In the former situation, the clash is novel and without a history. Whatever the details of the conflict, the history of hostility between the two states is unlikely to shape the outcome of the conflict because none existed previously.1 In contrast, states with a long history of hostility are likely to mistrust any conciliatory moves made by their rival because conciliation does not seem to fit with what they have come to expect from the enemy. Hostility becomes entrenched over time and actors are primed to return hostility for perceived hostility almost on a reflexive basis. A history of conflict matters because it makes current conflicts more intractable than they might otherwise be.

    Rivalries tend to be built around conflicts that are not easily resolved by the antagonists. Even if the issues that initiated the rivalry are resolved, rivals have a way of developing new issues to contest. Thus, physical conflict between rivals recurs as rivals continue to fight about their issue preferences without managing to settle them. Fighting between India and Pakistan in 1947 has something to do with the subsequent fighting between India and Pakistan in 1965, 1971, and 1999. This observation overlaps with the emphasis on historical dynamics, but it also suggests that what happens in one fight cannot be treated in isolation from the earlier episodes of fighting. To the extent that rivals are recidivists increases the expectation that one combat bout leads to another and the latest round of fighting is probably related somehow to the earlier iterations. For instance, decision makers in a state that is beaten in one war may resolve not to be beaten again. These decision makers may improve their capability to take on the rival and, in doing so, may increase the likelihood of a return to the battlefield, especially if the rival observes these capability preparations and interprets them as suggesting a future attack is probable.

    Complex interdependencies in rivalries have already been touched on, as in the Korean War example. The United States initially announced that it was not particularly interested in the fate of South Korea. That pronouncement encouraged a North Korean attack that had been sanctioned by the Soviet Union. U.S. military movement toward the Yalu River led to the Chinese intervention and a new Chinese-U.S. rivalry that had implications later for the U.S. intervention in the Vietnamese War in the mid-1960s. Alternatively, the Third Indochina War began within the structure of a Cambodian-Vietnamese rivalry with a short history but prompted other rivals (China and the Soviet Union, with Thailand and the United States now on the side of the Chinese) to join the fighting in various ways. This contributed to the war's becoming more complex than it had been when it started and to the prolongation of the conflict from the late 1970s to the early 1990s.1

    Rivalry Fields

    The point of highlighting complex interdependence is that rivalries are often embedded in a complicated field of rivalries. Just as a conflict in year X between two rivals may not be explicable without reference to earlier conflicts between the two rivals, the nature and implications of conflict in a single rivalry often cannot be limited to the single rivalry. For instance, the probability of Russian intervention in the Balkans in 1914 after Austro-Hungary attacked its Serbian rival had increased because Russia had been defeated by another rival in the 1904–1905 war with Japan and had turned its foreign policy attention away from the Far East to southeastern Eurasia. One of the reasons Germany may have given Austro-Hungary its “blank check” to initiate hostilities in the Balkans was its fear that subsequent Russian improvements in capabilities meant that it was better to fight its Russian rival soon rather than later.

    Similarly, there are a number of rivalry triangles around the globe that operate with greater complexity than can be captured by a focus on a single rivalry dyad. The United States–USSR–China triangle—after the Chinese-U.S. rapprochement in 1972 opened up possibilities for the United States to play the “China card” in its competition with the Soviet Union—comes readily to mind. But China could also play the “American card” in its own competition with the Soviet Union. Other, less well-known, complex rivalries are the triangular relationships among Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia and, before the end of apartheid, Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and South Africa. The Indo-Pakistani rivalry has been made more complex by Chinese aid to Pakistan, in part due to a China-India rivalry and Soviet aid to India, in part due to U.S. assistance to Pakistan that stemmed from cold war calculations. However critical rivalries are, one needs to keep in mind that it is often an analytical error to try to take them out of their immediate context. A number of rivalries are linked, more or less closely, with other rivalries. What happens in one rivalry can have repercussions for other conflicts within the world rivalry network or networks.

    A prominent example in an era concerned with nuclear proliferation are the “daisy chains” linking rivals and the acquisition of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons emerged in World War II in a competitive dynamic among German, U.S., and Soviet scientists. Once the United States had acquired the atomic bomb, the Soviet Union accelerated its efforts to develop such weapons. The subsequent cold war led to the proliferation of thousands of nuclear warheads. Yet the nuclear weapons–rivalry linkages are by no means restricted to the strongest powers in the system. China sought nuclear weapons to protect itself against the United States, which meant that China's rival, India, also needed nuclear weapons. India's rival, Pakistan, decided it needed nuclear weapons to prevent an attack from India. Should Iran duplicate Israel's feat in developing nuclear weapons, other states in the Middle East that are rivals with Iran will discover or rediscover reasons for acquiring their own weapons of mass destruction.

    There is still another reason for studying rivalry dynamics. For a brief period in the 1990s, and in the aftermath of the U.S.-Soviet cold war, there were no major power rivalries. Major power rivalries are necessary (although not sufficient) for intensely lethal wars with wide geographical scope. If there are no rivalries, then such wars are most unlikely. Unfortunately, the unprecedented absence of major power rivalry proved to be short-lived. Recently major power rivalries have returned even though they have yet to take on the level of competition manifested in the planetary-wide, cold war years. The scope of these current rivalries tends to remain regional to date with Russia defending its prerogatives in the “Near Abroad” from Western incursions and China tentatively asserting its claim to regional leadership in east Asia.1 None of the rivals with the United States are too eager to act in such a way that the cold-war-type gauntlet is thrown down once and for all. Both Russia and China have incentives to cooperate with the United States on other issues such as trade, development, investment, and terrorism. Consequently, the rivalries proceed selectively and without formal acknowledgement—not unlike undeclared wars.

    Yet the reemergence of major power rivalries is a harbinger of things that may come. It may mean that the brief respite from major power conflict after the cold war was just that—a brief respite. The twenty-first century may end up resembling the twentieth century in some ways. If nothing else, the twenty-first century is likely to be characterized by a protracted competition between the United States and China for primacy in the world economy.1 This is a competition that seems nearly inescapable and unlikely to be resolved in the next few decades. Should this rivalry become as central to world politics as the U.S.-Soviet conflict was in the second half of the twentieth century, one will need to understand the nature of rivalry dynamics better than one did in the cold war years. In those years overt war was avoided but not without some luck within the context of the proliferation of nuclear warheads. The eventual collapse of U.S-Soviet rivalry with the disintegration of the USSR caught everyone by surprise.

    The Future of Rivalry

    More needs to be known about how rivalries escalate, de-escalate, and sometimes even terminate. If that information had been available in the cold war years, it could have been to used to lessen the rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union, although there was no guarantee of that happening. There is also no guarantee that the twenty-first century will be as lucky to avoid nuclear confrontation as was the second half of the twentieth century. An improved understanding of central rivalry dynamics in world politics might help to reduce the effects of superpower conflicts.

    Indeed, studying how rivalries function represents a bet on the future. In peaceful and highly prosperous times for all parts of the world, there is probably not much reason to study rivalries. In such a world, rivalries should die off as did dinosaurs. If, on the other hand, the near future becomes conflictual and characterized by uneven prosperity, there is added incentive to study rivalry.

    In the coming century, the size of the world population should increase by at least another two billion and perhaps more beyond the current seven billion. Population growth will be greatest where standards of living and access to resources is already restricted. Climate and environmental deterioration is anticipated. How much deterioration is likely to occur is not clear. But some parts of the world are already highly stressed. Slightly warmer and drier climates could prove deadly in places that are already warm and dry. Rising sea levels could cause major problems for the many cities located on coasts. Then, too, the availability of less oil and water is also anticipated. As these resources become more scarce, conflict over them seems probable. Old territorial claims could be reinvigorated. States that share rivers—in places like the Middle East, northeast Africa, or southeast Asia—are likely to find it more difficult to manage access to their rivers equitably and peacefully. States that share access to adjacent fields of oil or gas may become more conflict prone as they attempt to maximize their share of extraction.

    Moreover, a few powerful states are improving their economic and military power. As they become more powerful, they will expect a greater say in how world politics function. Now that major power rivalries are back, the track record on accommodating new rising power peacefully is not very good. Incumbent elites tend to be intransigent. Rising elites tend to be impatient. Both sides view their adversaries as engaging in unfair practices with malevolent goals. Clashes over transitions in relative positions seem more probable than do harmonious adjustments in rising and declining power.

    For all of these reasons, there is little reason to expect conflict to disappear in the twenty-first century. Intensifying international policy problems, increasing resource scarcities, and always difficult-to-handle transition dynamics practically guarantee it. Conflict and rivalry are not synonymous. Yet the increasing probability of conflict probably also means the likelihood of new rivalries, the resurrection of some terminated rivalries, and increased hostility within some existing rivalries. Should these assumptions prove to be true, then incentives to know more about rivalry dynamics should be all the greater.

    Notes

    The implication is that a warm peace is more genuinely pacific. A cold peace is more like a cold war, albeit less intensely waged.

    Other definitions and criteria for identifying rivalry exist and will be discussed later in this introduction. However, this definition has guided the selection of rivalries examined in this volume.

    If all conflict opponents were rivals, rivalry would simply be a synonym for conflict and not very interesting as a concept. As it happens, relatively few pairs of states ever become rivals but, once they do, rivalries account for a disproportionate amount of the conflict that occurs.

    The probability of the weaker state yielding, however, is certainly less than 1.0. An example is the Russian-Georgian relationship. Georgia is too weak to represent more than a nuisance to Russia. Whether Georgia eventually yields to Russian preferences will depend considerably on the extent to which the United States provides protection. In this case, Russia and the United States are interstate rivals over the degree to which Georgia is allowed to align with pro-Western forces in the Caucases.

    Media attention in the newspaper is not a definition of rivalry; it is merely a hint or a possible indicator or clue. Nor is proximity a criterion for rivalry. It only makes rivalry more probable, especially for actors with limited capabilities.

    Rivals on opposing sides do not mean that no other causal factors are present and important to explaining why conflict escalates into war. The point is only that rivals are more likely to go to war than are nonrivals.

    One rivalry argument contends that World War I took place and expanded to encompass a large number of states in part due to the existence of an unusually large number of rivalries that were primed to fight more or less at the same time and that did join the 1914–1918 war, usually on opposing sides. See Thompson (2003).

    Thompson (1999a), 4.

    An exception might be that if the pair of states with no history of conflict had a long history of close cooperation, this historical dynamic might have some influence on the outcome of the conflict.

    Cambodia and Vietnam had a long history of conflict but not as rivals. Cambodian territory, historically, had served as a buffer between stronger empires located in the areas that became Thailand and Vietnam.

    The Russian “Near Abroad” refers to Eastern Europe and a number of states adjacent to Russia in the south that had earlier been part of the Soviet Union before its collapse in 1991.

    The only likely way to avoid this competition is for the Chinese political system to disintegrate or the Chinese economy to cease developing rapidly.

  • Appendix

    Appendix: Chronological List of Rivalries

    Appendix

    Selected Bibliography

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