One of the first texts to make use of the 2008 National Election Study results, this new edition of Change and Continuity will put the momentous recent elections into historical context for your students.
Questions considered include: What were the impact of race and gender in this election cycle? How did fundraising during the invisible primary shape the nomination contest? To what extent did youth participation determine the outcome of the election? What effect did new media have on the campaign and voter turnout? What role did the economic crisis play in voters choices? Was 2008 a year for partisan realignment of the electorate?
This well-respected author team delves deeply into each area, armed with an array of thorough, yet student-friendly data, graphics, and figures. As with all books in the Change and Continuity series, the authors present election data from a variety of sources in a straightforward, accessible manner and make sure to incorporate and discuss the most recent research.
Chapter 3: The Election Results
The Election Results
As the general election campaign closed, it was clear that Barack Obama was very likely to prevail. Obama led in all seventy of the publicly reported trial heats of likely voters conducted from September 19 to November 3, and in the sixteen polls conducted during the week before the election he held leads ranging from 7 percentage points to 13 percentage points.1 Web sites that forecast the election results predicted an Obama victory.2 Moreover, two gaming Web sites—Intrade. com, a site based in Dublin, Ireland, and the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), based at the University of Iowa—also showed the Democratic candidate as the likely presidential winner. By the day before the election, according to Intrade. com, the probability of a ...