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The proposed text presents a detailed case study of the US Senate race in Montana in 2012 and is intended for use as a supplement in courses on campaigns and elections, the US Congress, and American Government. This race is of particular interest because it was one of only a few competitive races in 2012 and because of the impact of Citizens United and so-called “dark money” on the campaign. Furthermore, the setting in Montana offers a view into the rising political influence of the West, the importance of “place” in politics, and the impact of congressional styles and constituent relationships on campaigns and elections. The author, David C.W. Parker, was granted exceptional access by both campaigns over the 21 months preceding the election, allowing him to tell the story of the race in fascinating detail. Throughout the narrative, Parker will weave in political analysis and place the race in the broader context of congressional elections and the research literature.

What Voters Know, How they Decide, and when Campaigns Matter
What voters know, how they decide, and when campaigns matter

Nate Silver drew the attention of the political world for his uncannily accurate predictions of the 2008 presidential elections. Writing as “Poblano” for the blog fivethirtyeight.com, Silver used a sophisticated econometric model successfully to forecast the outcome of the Republican and Democratic presidential primaries. Ultimately, the baseball sabermetrician with an economics degree from the University of Chicago correctly projected the electoral college vote in forty-nine states and all thirty-five Senate races on the ballot that year.1 In 2012, Silver got all fifty state electoral college votes correct and thirty-one out of thirty-three Senate races.2 Silver claims that by thinking probabilistically, adapting one's forecast with new ...

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