Previous Chapter Chapter 53: Logistic Spline Model Next Chapter
Chapter 53: Logistic Spline Model
Composite growth models (e.g. → Multi-logistic model, generalizations of → Bass model) that can represent the adoption of product over whole product life cycle (PLC) need extensive sets of observations, which make their use for practical forecasting purposes very difficult.
In addition, forecasting by → Growth models relies on the assumption that certain internal market forces, as well as external influences (e.g. technology, macroeconomics, purchasing power, regulatory, etc.), remain the same during the forecasting period. In reality, changes of conditions occur and can be estimated only by qualitative forecasting methods. In such cases, forecasters are confronted with challenges: how to quantitatively bridge the gap between known history and perceivable future, and how to assess results from qualitative forecasting.
Analysis of typical market ...