Prisoner Reentry in the Era of Mass Incarceration

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Daniel P. Mears & Joshua C. Cochran

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  • Copyright

    About the Authors

    Daniel P. Mears is the Mark C. Stafford Professor of Criminology in the College of Criminology and Criminal Justice at Florida State University.

    Joshua C. Cochran is assistant professor in the Department of Criminology at the University of South Florida.

    Preface

    The idea for this book emerged from several different sources. Prison populations have grown by historically unprecedented amounts in recent decades. Accordingly, scholars increasingly have focused their attention on this growth. Some work has examined the factors that contributed to mass incarceration. Other work has focused on desistance from offending. One particular focus to which scholars have devoted substantial attention has been prisoner reentry. During the 1990s, researchers highlighted that much remained unknown about prisoners and individuals’ experiences both during and after incarceration. Previous scholarship focused on “reintegration.”

    The newer generation of research has centered on the idea that reentry is a process. Inmates leave prison and experience a range of challenges, and they return to diverse and difficult social contexts. Concerns about recidivism are, of course, prominent. But the burgeoning literature on reentry also has highlighted that recidivism constitutes only one of a range of outcomes—there are others, such as unemployment, homelessness, and family reunification—that warrant attention from policy makers, practitioners, and scholars. This literature has also highlighted that a discussion of reentry is incomplete without an understanding of mass incarceration and the “punitive turn” in criminal justice.

    Our own interest and involvement in the study of prisoner reentry stems from a number of experiences. Daniel has spent almost two decades studying the causes of crime, evaluating crime and criminal justice programs and policies, and investigating many aspects of reentry as a social problem. He brings with him a sociological background and an emphasis on the use and development of social theory to understand offending and responses to it. At the same time, he brings a strong appreciation for the unique insights that those “on the ground”—community residents, practitioners, law enforcement agents, and court and correctional system personnel—have for understanding criminal behavior and how to effectively respond to it. In part, this sensibility comes from his experience working with delinquent youth. It also comes from his evaluation research experiences, which served to highlight how theory can be developed from the ground up based on practitioner accounts as well as from the top down based on insights from social science.

    For Joshua, the interest in reentry stems from immersion in research on inmate prison experiences and their consequences for behavior during and after incarceration. When he began conducting research on these experiences, it became clear that far too little is known about what happens to inmates and the relative effectiveness of different types of sanctions. These lines of research contributed to his focus on reentry and the fascinating but troubling issues that attend reentry and, more broadly, punishment.

    His interest stems, too, from personal experiences. His father worked in law enforcement and then as a clinical addictions counselor. As a result, Joshua grew up around homeless and drug-addicted populations, the bulk of whom had spent substantial time in jails and prisons. His father provided assistance to these individuals, mostly men, which involved helping them to find jobs as dishwashers, cooks, and custodians and directing them to social services and health care. However, many of the men remained addicted and unemployed and eventually returned to jail or prison. In most cases, one could point to personal failings as well as to social disadvantage as causes of these outcomes. What in particular, though, leads individuals to offend and to do so even after they have been incarcerated several times? Answering this question is central to advancing theories of offending and to improving public safety.

    A somewhat more eclectic range of factors led Daniel to his interest in reentry. The interest stems in part from being cold, thinking about reality television shows, having worked at residential facilities, and collaborating with criminal justice practitioners. It stems, too, from a desire to advance criminological theory. An explanation is in order.

    Although I (Daniel) grew up in New Hampshire, I can’t say that I enjoyed the cold. For that reason, I should have enjoyed Austin, Texas, where I undertook my graduate studies. I did. Even so, Austin was a cold place. Really. The university spared no expense when it came to air conditioning. I wore a sweatshirt on a regular basis, then would take it off when I went outside. I have never liked the cold, not in New Hampshire and not in Texas. My brother, David, could wear no gloves in freezing weather and his fingers would be fine at the end of a run. Mine would require hours of exposure to the wood stove before they would thaw, and that was after wearing huge, wind-resistant gloves. Whatever toughness I may have, it is not “cold tough.”

    Why does that matter? When I worked in Washington, DC, at the Urban Institute, it was a rare day that I did not see homeless people. In the winter. In the cold. On the street. I had a long shirt, sweater, coat, hat, and more on. I would have worn a wrap-around electric warmer if such existed. The selfless part of me was, and remains, angry and pained by the scale of homelessness that exists in DC and in many metropolitan areas. The selfish part of me wondered how I would fare out on the street, in the cold.

    What is the connection to reentry? When I arrived at the Urban Institute in 2001, policy makers, practitioners, and scholars were just beginning to come to grips with understanding the fall-out of the rapid increase in incarceration during the 1980s and 1990s. Jeremy Travis, in his capacity as the director of the National Institute of Justice, had special insight into the problem given his position and the research funded through his agency. He joined the Urban Institute and, along with a team of wonderful people, sought funding to support studies to illuminate a phenomenon—reentry—that was little understood. Basic questions remained largely unanswered. For example, who exactly comes out of prison? What are their experiences as they transition back into families and communities? Yes, recidivism studies existed. But little systematic theoretical or empirical research had been targeted toward understanding the profile of the ex-prisoner population, the challenges that they faced upon release, and how best to ensure not only that they stopped offending but also that they became contributing members of society.

    I began to help with some of these studies and then led several. Around this time, “survival” television shows became popular. Individuals would be subject to challenges; if they could overcome the challenges, victory was theirs. It dawned on me that the challenges of reentry would not likely be overcome by your average, or even above-average, citizen. The challenges would daunt the most type A personalities out there.

    A pause—when we talk about people in prison, it is important to recognize that they committed a crime. There were victims. Accordingly, the focus of this discussion and book does not require liking ex-prisoners or feeling sorry for them. Rather, all that is needed is a pragmatic mindset. If individuals consistently fail upon release from prison, then we as a society have a problem. Failure in a reentry context typically includes recidivism. That means more crime, more victims, and more cost. Such problems concern conservatives and liberals alike and, indeed, most everyone.

    Back to ex-prisoners. As I reviewed scholarship about ex-prisoners, I thought about the youth at the facilities at which I had worked. They invariably had experienced hardships that, fortunately, most of us do not. The hardships included sexual and physical abuse, abandonment, mental illness and learning disabilities, neglect, and more. Most of these problems had gone unaddressed. It can be easier for us to feel more strongly about these issues when we contemplate children and young teenagers. These individuals, however, grow up, and their backgrounds do not magically disappear. That is why the profile of ex-prisoners can be so dismaying—serious family dysfunction, a history of abuse, limited education, spotty work histories, drug addiction, homelessness, residency in areas of concentrated poverty, and more.

    Let us return, then, to the survival television show. Imagine you are a contestant. Your situation is as follows. You have no money. You have no more than an eighth grade education. You have a learning disability. You have a mental disorder. You have a lousy work history. In addition, you have a felony conviction, which means that you may not be able to vote, you may not be allowed to live in subsidized housing (where your family likely resides), and you are not allowed to work in certain occupations. An added bonus: During the previous two years, you received little to no rehabilitative programming, little to no education, and little to no training in or experience with the types of work or work skills that would assist you in a job search. Also, you likely have had to endure physical and verbal assaults and threats from inmates or officers. Contact with family and friends? No.

    That is your reality television starting point. The goals that you must achieve if you want to win the prize? Find safe and affordable housing, secure gainful employment, and obtain treatment for a drug abuse problem.

    When I first framed the issue to myself this way, the problem of reentry took on a new cast. Years earlier, I had been in the Peace Corps. That involved doing without the typical supports that most of us enjoy. It was challenging, but I had friends, some funding, training, and everybody seemed focused on helping you. Even so, I could hardly have been described as a success story for the Peace Corps. This experience came immediately on the heels of trying to find my way in college. In high school, everything came easily, but college was a different story. I struggled, and my ego took a beating. In the end, though, I bounced back from these experiences, bruised but wiser and stronger. Years later, sitting at my desk in D.C., I reflected on my past experiences and wondered what life would be like to be confronted with constant, repeated failure. Never succeeding but instead failing again and again, with no outside supports to help you.

    I thought, too, about being cold. It turns out that the first few weeks after release from prison are among the hardest. Not surprisingly—given the profile of the typical inmate and the challenges faced during reentry—many ex-prisoners become homeless. And homeless people not infrequently live in the cold.

    So, in our television survival show, we begin with many deficits, experience threats and violence, find ourselves out in the cold with few if any financial or social resources. And yet we are tasked, if we wish to win, with finding employment, housing, and treatment. That is a contest that many of us would lose. Remarkably, though, this situation confronts hundreds of thousands of people each year as they leave prison. It is not reality television; it is, rather, real life.

    The consequences of failing to address this situation means that, in the end, society loses through more crime, victimization, homelessness, and cycles of violence and dysfunction within families and communities. Ultimately, society pays in a myriad of ways for this failure. Can we build our way out of this situation through more incarceration? The answer from research appears to be a resounding no. Are there solutions? Yes.

    This book is motivated by the critical importance of reducing crime and the suffering and costs that accompany it and by the fact that many opportunities exist to create smarter, more effective systems of justice. We do not advocate a “silver-bullet” approach to improving reentry. Indeed, we argue against a one-solution mindset. In its place, we advocate capitalizing on a wide range of opportunities to improve the criminal justice system, corrections, communities, and the ways that we sanction and intervene with individuals who go to and leave prison. There is, at the same time, the opportunity to advance criminological theory on offending, families and communities, crime policy changes, criminal justice processing, and corrections. Indeed, the study of reentry offers many different ways to develop and test theory, as we will discuss. Theory sometimes can be bad. It can put blinders up and too narrowly delimit our focus. Even so, even the most pragmatic views from those “on the ground” implicitly involve recourse to theoretical accounts of reality. Indeed, for that very reason, incorporation of the insights of the individuals who work in or shape the criminal justice system is essential for creating more accurate accounts of crime and justice.

    I worked at a residential facility that housed delinquent youth, and I have worked for years evaluating programs and policies designed and implemented by well-meaning individuals who strive to promote public safety and to help people. These experiences inform the research that I have undertaken, my views about the use and development of theory, and the importance of recognizing and incorporating the insights of the individuals on the ground into research and policy-making efforts. They result, too, in a sensibility that places a premium on viewing crime and justice from different vantage points. When I conducted my first study on sentencing, I interviewed prosecutors, judges, and defense attorneys. Almost invariably, it was the individuals who had worked in all three of these capacities who seemed to offer the most balanced, insightful views about problems in criminal justice and solutions to them. When we view the prisoner reentry landscape from diverse perspectives there are, yes, many problems, but there also are many solutions, ones that go well beyond building more prisons.

    To identify and implement these solutions will require considerable effort by many different groups. That includes the public, who ultimately determine how government operates; students, who will go on to make the world a better place; policy makers and practitioners, who work to create approaches to improving the criminal justice and correctional systems; and scholars, who strive to understand and explain crime, criminal justice processing, correctional systems, and what can be done to improve public safety and the administration of justice. All of these groups will be needed to solve more effectively and efficiently the problems associated with crime and reentry.

    We owe a debt of gratitude to Jerry Westby for encouraging this effort. Without his prompting and guidance, there would be no book! Jerry, thank you. We owe thanks as well to Denise Simon and the reviewers. They provided thoughtful suggestions that greatly helped to improve the book. We owe thanks, too, to many others. Emily, Eli, and Ashley provided no end of enthusiasm and support. They are tolerant (fortunately), curious, and wonderful people. Eli every day teaches Dan more than Dan teaches him, which is the way it should be. Our thanks to Meghan Ogle, who provided research assistance in developing the tables for Chapter 9. We thank the Sentencing Project for permission to use data from their 2012 report by Christopher Uggen, Sarah Shannon, and Jeff Manza on felon disenfranchisement to create Figure 2.4. Throughout the book, we have drawn on arguments or ideas that we have touched on in our other works. The use accords with author copyright rights, but we nonetheless want to acknowledge and thank the following presses and organizations for publishing the original works: the American Correctional Association; Blackwell Synergy; the Center for Juvenile and Criminal Justice; Elsevier; Oxford University Press; Sage; Taylor and Francis; the University of California Press; the University of Houston Law Center; the Urban Institute; and Wiley-Blackwell. Not least, we thank our colleagues, who have provided support, insight, and more.

  • Notes

    Chapter 1

    1 Stolz (2002).

    2 Feeley and Simon (1992).

    3 Martinson (1974).

    4 Skogan (1995).

    5 Garland (2013).

    6 The figure presents thirty-five countries from a list of 222 reported in Walmsley (2013); these were selected to illustrate variation in world incarceration rates. For all 222 countries, the United States still has the highest incarceration rate. Estimates for each country typically spanned the 2011 through 2013 period. Countries report incarceration figures for varying time periods, necessarily creating some imprecision in making comparisons for any given year. In general, the rank ordering of countries by rate of incarceration does not change greatly from one year to the next. Updated estimates can be found at the International Centre for Prison Studies’ website (http://www.prisonstudies.org/world-prison-brief).

    7 Walmsley (2013:1).

    8 Glaze and Parks (2012).

    9 Mears (2010:14).

    10 Petersilia (2003); Travis (2005).

    11 Kyckelhahn (2012).

    12 Clear (2007); Mears (2010).

    13 Langan and Levin (2002); Durose et al. (2014).

    14 Durose et al. (2014:8, 15). The 5-year rearrest rates by type of offense were: any (77 percent), violent (71 percent), property (82 percent), drug (77 percent), and public order (74 percent) (Durose et al. 2014:8).

    15 Durose et al. (2014:15).

    16 Nagin et al. (2009).

    17 Mears (2013).

    18 Petersilia (2003); Travis (2005); Villettaz et al. (2006); Western (2006); Clear (2007); Nagin et al. (2009); Mears (2007, 2010); Gottschalk (2006, 2011); Cullen et al. (2011); Durlauf and Nagin (2011); Bales and Piquero (2012); Garland (2013); Cochran, Mears, and Bales (2014); Travis et al. (2014).

    19 Mears (2010); Mears and Barnes (2010).

    20 Laub and Sampson (2003); Laub (2004); Piquero et al. (2007).

    21 See, for example, Garland (2001); Greenberg and West (2001); Tonry (2004); Gottschalk (2006); Spelman (2006, 2008, 2009).

    22 Garland (2013).

    23 See, generally, Mears (2010).

    24 See, for example, Maruna (2001); Petersilia (2003); Tonry (2004); Travis (2005); Travis and Visher (2005); Gottschalk (2006); Western (2006); Bushway et al. (2007); Clear (2007); Ross and Richards (2009); Alexander (2012); Latessa et al. (2014); Crow and Smykla (2014).

    25 Mears (2008a).

    26 Travis (2005: xxiii).

    27 Nagin et al. (2009).

    28 Petersilia (1991).

    29 Petersilia (1991); Kraska (2006); Mears (2010).

    30 Mears (2010).

    31 The ASC’s complete award description is available online at http://www.asc41.com/awards/SutherlandAward.html.

    32 Garland (2013).

    33 Cullen (2011).

    34 See, generally, Rossi (1980); Mears (2010).

    35 Mears and Stafford (2002).

    36 Kraska (2006:167).

    37 Kraska (2006:169).

    38 Mears and Bacon (2009).

    39 See, for example, Lynch and Sabol (2001); Travis (2005).

    40 Travis (2005).

    Chapter 2

    1 Travis (2005:70); see also Barker (2009); Green (2013).

    2 See, for example, Cullen and Gendreau (2000); MacKenzie (2006); Lipsey and Cullen (2007); Cullen and Jonson (2012); Craig et al. (2013).

    3 Siennick (2014).

    4 Useem and Piehl (2008).

    5 Mears (2010).

    6 Garland (2013:478).

    7 Petersilia (2003).

    8 Welsh and Pfeffer (2013).

    9 Travis (2005:70).

    10 Ewald and Uggen (2012:85).

    11 Ewald and Uggen (2012:85).

    12 Petersilia (2003:105).

    13 Travis (2005:69). The reference to invisible punishment can be found in Michel Foucault’s work (see, e.g., Foucault 1978; see also Hamilton 1996 and Hutchings 1999).

    14 Wilkins et al. (1991); Travis (2005).

    15 Stuntz (2011).

    16 Travis (2005:43).

    17 Raphael and Stoll (2009).

    18 Cullen and Jonson (2012).

    19 Gibbs (1975); Paternoster (2010).

    20 Blumstein and Beck (1999).

    21 Blumstein and Beck (1999:54).

    22 Carson and Sabol (2012:10).

    23 Nadelmann (2004); Sevigny and Caulkins (2004).

    24 Mears (2010).

    25 Forer (1994).

    26 Forer (1994:3).

    27 Wilson et al. (2006).

    28 Mancini and Mears (2013).

    29 Mancini et al. (2013); Mancini (2014).

    30 Blomberg (1980).

    31 Mears (2012a).

    32 Mears (2012a).

    33 Mears (2010:17).

    34 Garland (2013:478); see also Travis and Lawrence (2002).

    35 Petersilia (2003); Travis (2005).

    36 Travis (2005:42).

    37 Travis (2005:49).

    38 Lynch and Sabol (2001:11); see also Lawrence et al. (2002).

    39 Phelps (2011:56).

    40 Gaes et al. (1999); Farabee (2005); Rhine et al. (2006); Mears (2010).

    41 MacKenzie (2006); Lipsey and Cullen (2007); Mears (2008a, 2010).

    42 Chesney-Lind and Mauer (2003); Ewald and Uggen (2012); LeBel and Maruna (2012).

    43 Travis (2005:69), citing 42 U.S. Code sec. 13662(c).

    44 Petersilia (2003:120).

    45 Petersilia (2003); Travis (2005); Harding et al. (2013).

    46 Metraux and Culhane (2004); Geller and Curtis (2011).

    47 Harding et al. (2013).

    48 Petersilia (2003); Harding et al. (2013).

    49 Lageson and Uggen (2013).

    50 See, for example, Bushway et al. (2007); Visher et al. (2011); Bushway and Apel (2012); Lageson and Uggen (2013).

    51 Mears and Mestre (2012).

    52 Holzer et al. (2007); Petersilia (2003); Wang et al. (2010); Mears, Wang, and Bales (2013); Stahler et al. (2013).

    53 Lageson and Uggen (2013:208).

    54 Petersilia (2003:113); see also Travis (2005); Bushway et al. (2007); Holzer et al. (2007).

    55 Petersilia (2003:114); see also Chesney-Lind and Mauer (2003).

    56 Petersilia (2003:115).

    57 Bushway et al. (2007); Ewald and Uggen (2012); LeBel and Maruna (2012).

    58 Mears, Cochran, and Siennick (2013).

    59 Travis (2005:69).

    60 Travis (2005:69).

    61 Petersilia (2005:124).

    62 Petersilia (2005:125).

    63 Sugie (2012).

    64 Miller and Spillane (2012).

    65 Manza and Uggen (2006).

    66 Uggen et al. (2012:1).

    67 Travis (2005:69).

    68 Travis (2005:69).

    69 Pryor and Thompkins (2013:459).

    70 Petersilia (2003:105); see, generally, Chesney-Lind and Mauer (2003).

    71 Mears (2010).

    72 Mancini et al. (2013); Mancini and Mears (2013).

    73 Rossi and Berk (1997).

    74 Rossi and Berk (1997:10).

    75 Miller and Spillane (2012); LeBel and Maruna (2012).

    76 Tonry (2004); Phelps (2011); Garland (2013).

    77 Paternoster (2010).

    78 Paternoster (2010:785).

    79 Stafford and Warr (1993); Jacobs (2010).

    80 Paternoster (2010:803); see also Nagin (2013).

    81 Paternoster (2010:803).

    82 Paternoster (2010:804–805).

    83 Paternoster (2010:815).

    84 Petersilia (2003); Travis (2005); Mears (2010).

    85 Mears (2010).

    86 Nagin et al. (2009).

    87 Travis (2005:70).

    88 Mears (2013).

    89 Mears and Bacon (2009).

    90 Roberts et al. (2003); Roberts and Hough (2005a-b); Lee et al. (2014).

    91 Rossi and Berk (1997).

    92 Nagin et al. (2009); Spelman (2006, 2008, 2009); Paternoster (2010); Wermink et al. (2013); Travis et al. (2014).

    93 MacKenzie (2006); Mears (2010); Cullen and Jonson (2012).

    94 Alongside of large-scale trends such as mass incarceration lie many micro-level and meso-level changes that occurred among state and local criminal justice jurisdictions. Understanding such variation is of interest in its own right (Garland 2013). However, it is important work, too, for identifying specific areas where the most gains in effective and efficient processing and sanctioning can be obtained.

    95 Mears and Bacon (2009).

    96 Mears and Bacon (2009).

    97 Travis (2005); Vitiello (2013).

    98 Roman and DeStefano (2004); Sevigny et al. (2013).

    99 Sampson (2013).

    100 Mears, Wang, and Bales (2013).

    101 Mears (2008a).

    102 Hawken and Kleiman (2009).

    103 Mears and Bacon (2009).

    Chapter 3

    1 See, for example, Gottschalk (2006); Barker (2009); Tonry (2009a); Blomberg and Lucken (2010); Stuntz (2011); Simon (2012); Garland (2013).

    2 Gawande (2007, 2009).

    3 See, generally, Travis et al. (2014).

    4 Simon (2012); Garland (2013).

    5 Blumstein and Beck (1999:54).

    6 That insight is one that flows from system analytic perspectives (Meadows 2008).

    7 Heilbroner (1990) has provided a compelling account of ways in which law enforcement behavior is affected in part by their understanding of how the courts will respond to arrests for certain types of illegal behavior.

    8 Tonry (2009a).

    9 Rand and Catalano (2007).

    10 Spelman (2006, 2008, 2009).

    11 Baumer (2011).

    12 See, however, Simon (2007).

    13 Burstein (1998, 2003, 2014).

    14 See, generally, Stolz (2002).

    15 Kahneman (2011).

    16 Groopman (2007).

    17 Forst (2004); Mears and Bacon (2009).

    18 Tonry (2009a).

    19 Cullen et al. (2000); Mears (2010).

    20 Roberts et al. (2003); Roberts and Hough (2005a-b); Ramirez (2013).

    21 Tonry (2004); Unnever and Cullen (2010).

    22 Roberts and Stalans (1998:32); see also Ramirez (2013).

    23 Roberts (1992); Roberts and Stalans (1998); Cullen et al. (2000); Roberts et al. (2003); Roberts and Hough (2005a-b); Unnever and Cullen (2010).

    24 Roberts and Stalans (1998:48).

    25 Unnever (2014).

    26 Nagin et al. (2006); Mears, Hay, et al. (2007).

    27 See, for example, Unnever and Cullen (2010).

    28 Unnever and Cullen (2010).

    29 See, however, Ramirez (2013).

    30 Unnever (2014).

    31 Ramirez (2013:357).

    32 Cullen et al. (2000); Nagin et al. (2006); Unnever and Cullen (2010).

    33 Pew Charitable Trusts (2012a).

    34 Cullen et al. (2000); Mears (2010).

    35 Stolz (2002); Marion and Oliver (2006, 2009); Simon (2007); Oliver and Marion (2008).

    36 Caplow and Simon (1999:65).

    37 See, generally, Useem and Piehl (2008).

    38 Skogan (1995:60).

    39 Braden (1996).

    40 Finckenauer (1978:17).

    41 Finckenauer (1978:24).

    42 Finckenauer (1978:23).

    43 Merlo et al. (1997:150).

    44 Feld (1999).

    45 Mauer (1999:13).

    46 Republican National Committee (2012:37).

    47 Roberts et al. (2003:3).

    48 Garland (2013:480–481). See also Tonry (2009a).

    49 Simon (2007, 2012).

    50 Alexander (2012).

    51 Western (2006); Wacquant (2009).

    52 Unnever and Cullen (2010).

    53 Beckett and Sasson (2000); Peffley and Hurwitz (2002); Chiricos et al. (2004); Peterson et al. (2006).

    54 Mears (2010).

    55 Sparks et al. (1996); Bottoms (1999).

    56 Mears and Reisig (2006); Mears and Watson (2006).

    57 Mears (2012a).

    58 Hogan et al. (2005); Costelloe et al. (2009); Vieno et al. (2013).

    59 Cullen et al. (2000).

    60 Cullen and Jonson (2012).

    61 Mears (2010).

    62 See, for example, Hutchings (1999); Gottschalk (2006); Simon (2007); Oliver and Marion (2008); Welsh and Harris (2008); Mears (2010); Lerman (2013).

    63 Spelman (2006, 2008, 2009). See also Durlauf and Nagin (2011).

    64 Nagin et al. (2009); Paternoster (2010); Cullen et al. (2011); Lerman (2013); Mears, Cochran, and Cullen (2014).

    65 Nagin et al. (2009); Cochran, Mears, and Bales (2014).

    66 Meade et al. (2013).

    67 Mears (2010); Durlauf and Nagin (2011).

    68 Rossi and Berk (1997); Cullen et al. (2000).

    69 Roberts and Stalans (1998:39).

    70 Roberts and Stalans (1998:39).

    71 Cullen et al. (2000); Roberts et al. (2003); Roberts and Hough (2005a-b).

    72 Roberts and Stalans (1998:50).

    73 Rossi and Berk (1997:7).

    74 Rossi and Berk (1997:8).

    75 Roberts and Stalans (1998:43).

    76 Pew Charitable Trust (2012a:2).

    77 Martinson (1974); Cullen and Jonson (2012).

    78 Tonry (1997); Cullen and Gendreau (2000); Petersilia (2003); Mears, Cochran, et al. (2011).

    79 Mears, Cochran, and Cullen (2014).

    80 Crouch (1993); Petersilia and Turner (1993); Deschenes et al. (1995); Spelman (1995); Petersilia (1997); May et al. (2005); Taxman (2012).

    81 See, generally, Petersilia and Turner (1993); Petersilia (1997); Tonry (1997); Piehl and LoBuglio (2005); MacKenzie (2006); Lipsey and Cullen (2007); Mears and Barnes (2010); MacKenzie (2012); Taxman (2012).

    82 Cochran, Mears, and Bales (2014).

    83 Roberts and Stalans (1998:49).

    84 Roberts and Stalans (1998:49).

    85 Pew Charitable Trusts (2012a).

    86 Phelps (2013).

    87 Mears (2010).

    88 See, however, Mears and Stafford (2002). Some causes are asymmetric. In such cases, an increase in a cause may produce more of a problem, but a decrease in the cause will have no effect on the problem. For example, if we increase our tooth brushing, we reduce the number of cavities that we will get. However, once a cavity exists due to a lack of tooth brushing, no amount of increased tooth brushing will cause the cavity to go away.

    89 Cochran, Mears, and Bales (2014).

    90 See, generally, Kahneman (2011).

    91 Blumstein (1997, 2008); Sherman (2004); Mears (2010).

    92 See, for example, Baumer (2011).

    93 Baumer (2011).

    94 Riveland (1999a); Lynch and Sabol (2001).

    95 Brown (2013); Phelps (2013).

    96 Weiman et al. (2007:30).

    97 Weiman et al. (2007:30).

    98 Garland (2001); Lynch (2007); Wacquant (2009).

    99 Caplow and Simon (1999); Weiman et al. (2007); Zimring (2007); Garland (2013).

    100 See, for example, Pew Charitable Trusts (2013).

    101 Meadows (2008).

    102 Blumstein and Beck (1999).

    103 Garland (2013:484).

    104 Blumstein and Beck (1999).

    105 See also Sabol (1999).

    106 Mears and Bacon (2009).

    107 Durkheim (1985); this compilation consists of essays Durkheim wrote in the late 1800s and early 1900s.

    108 Durkheim (1985:100).

    109 Zimring (2005, 2007); Simon (2012).

    110 See, for example, Harmon (2013).

    111 See, for example, Gottschalk (2006); Barker (2009); Alexander (2012); Simon (2012); Garland (2013).

    112 Mears and Stafford (2002).

    113 Stolz (2002).

    114 Mears (2010).

    115 Garland (2013:487).

    116 Alexander (2012); see also Wacquant (2009).

    117 The account involves arguments that can be found in many scholarly analyses of mass incarceration, including those by Blumstein (1997), Cullen and Gendreau (2000), Garland (2001), Gottschalk (2006), Simon (2007, 2012), Oliver and Marion (2008), Welsh and Harris (2008), Blomberg and Lucken (2010), Mears (2010), and others.

    118 Mears (2010).

    119 Barker (2009).

    120 Garland (2013:483); see, generally, Barker (2009) and Simon (2012).

    121 Garland (2013:482).

    122 See, generally, Garland (2013).

    123 Clear (2007).

    124 Gottschalk (2013).

    125 Karmen (1992).

    126 Davis et al. (2003); Hickman and Simpson (2003); Felson and Pare (2008).

    127 Stolz (2002).

    128 Mears and Bacon (2009).

    129 Mears (2013).

    Chapter 4

    1 Here we draw in part on Mears and Cochran (2014), a chapter entitled “Who Goes to Prison?” In that chapter, as in other works (e.g., Lynch and Sabol 2001; Travis et al. 2001; Petersilia 2003, 2005; Western 2006; Useem and Piehl 2008; Gottschalk 2006, 2011; Raphael 2011; Carson and Sabol 2012; Mears and Cochran 2012; Visher and Travis 2012), the focus centers on the profile of the “typical” inmate. In the current chapter, our focus is less on providing a complete description of prisoner characteristics. These other accounts, including Mears and Cochran (2014), provide such information in comprehensive detail. Instead, we attend more to identifying why inmate characteristics are relevant to a discussion of reentry.

    2 See, for example, Travis et al. (2001); Petersilia (2003, 2005); Raphael (2011); Carson and Sabol (2012); Visher and Travis (2012); Mears and Cochran (2014).

    3 Mears (2010).

    4 Beck and Greenfeld (1995); Mears (2010).

    5 Mears (2010).

    6 Wolf et al. (2007).

    7 Mushlin (2002); Easton (2011).

    8 Steiner and Meade (2014).

    9 Steiner and Meade (2014:143).

    10 Wolf et al. (2007).

    11 Mears and Travis (2004).

    12 Such changes are entirely possible—see, for example, Liska et al. (1999).

    13 Irwin and Cressey (1962).

    14 Adams (1992); Mears, Stewart, et al. (2013).

    15 Mears (2008a).

    16 See, generally, Pettit and Western (2004); Travis (2005); Warren et al. (2006); Western (2006); Wang and Mears (2010); Tonry (1995, 2008, 2011, 2012); Spohn (2014).

    17 Spohn (2014).

    18 See, for example, Doerner and Demuth (2014).

    19 Blowers and Doerner (2013).

    20 Mears, Stewart, et al. (2013); Hemmens and Stohr (2014).

    21 See, generally, Hemmens and Stohr (2014).

    22 Fleisher and Decker (2001).

    23 Hemmens and Stohr (2014).

    24 Mears and Bales (2009); Hemmens and Stohr (2014).

    25 Tonry (2012:55).

    26 Arbach-Lucioni et al. (2012).

    27 Steiner and Wooldredge (2014).

    28 Wang et al. (2010); Mears, Wang, and Bales (2013).

    29 Hemmens and Stohr (2014:122).

    30 Carson and Sabol (2012:10).

    31 Blumstein and Beck (1999).

    32 Blumstein and Beck (1999); Mears (2010).

    33 Gendreau et al. (1997); Steiner (2009); Cunningham et al. (2011); Arbach-Lucioni et al. (2012).

    34 Beck and Johnson (2012).

    35 Blumstein et al. (1986).

    36 Harlow (2003).

    37 Durose et al. (2014:6).

    38 Durose et al. (2014:7).

    39 Nagin et al. (2009); Cullen et al. (2011); Cochran, Mears, and Bales (2014).

    40 Adams (1992); Liebling (1999).

    41 Pew Charitable Trusts (2012b).

    42 Pew Charitable Trusts (2012b).

    43 Garland (2013); Cochran, Mears, and Bales (2014).

    44 Uggen et al. (2005); Cochran and Mears (2013); Meade et al. (2013).

    45 Gendreau et al. (1997); Wooldredge et al. (2001); Sorensen and Cunningham (2010).

    46 Rose and Clear (2003); Uggen and Wakefield (2005).

    47 Beck and Mumola (1999); Carson and Sabol (2012).

    48 Chiu (2010); Stal (2012).

    49 Tonry (2011); Alexander (2012).

    50 Western (2006:3).

    51 Petersilia (2005); Clear (2007); Mears, Wang, et al. (2008); Tonry (2011, 2012).

    52 Carson and Sabol (2012).

    53 Harrison and Beck (2005).

    54 Chesney-Lind and Pasko (2013).

    55 Blevins et al. (2010); Solinger et al. (2010); Wolff and Shi (2011); Cobbina et al. (2012).

    56 Carson and Sabol (2012).

    57 Matthews and Hubbard (2008); Wright et al. (2012).

    58 James and Glaze (2006); Guthrie (2011); Wright et al. (2012).

    59 Harlow (2003).

    60 Hayes (2002); Herrington (2009); McKenzie et al. (2012).

    61 Visher et al. (2011).

    62 Harlow (2003); Petersilia (2005); see also Ramakers et al. (2014).

    63 Uggen et al. (2005); Bushway et al. (2007); Bushway and Apel (2012).

    64 Mears and Mestre (2012).

    65 Wang et al. (2010).

    66 Mears and Cochran (2012).

    67 Petersilia (2003:36–37).

    68 James and Glaze (2006); Mumola and Karberg (2006).

    69 Mears (2001, 2004b).

    70 Guy et al. (2005); Felson et al. (2012); Houser et al. (2012).

    71 Kubrin and Stewart (2006).

    72 See, generally, Bushway et al. (2007); Clear (2007); Mears, Wang, et al. (2008); Sampson (2009); Wang et al. (2010); Mears, Wang, and Bales (2013).

    73 Christian (2005); Cochran and Mears (2013); Hemmens and Stohr (2014).

    74 Durose et al. (2014).

    75 Pratt and Cullen (2000).

    76 Mears, Cochran, and Siennick (2013).

    77 Mumola (2000).

    78 Cochran and Mears (2013).

    79 Bottoms (1999).

    80 See, generally, Agnew (2005); see also Mears and Cochran (2013); Mears, Cochran, and Beaver (2013).

    81 Farrington and Welsh (2007:96).

    82 Stafford and Mears (2014).

    83 Gawande (2007); Groopman (2007); see, generally, Mears and Bacon (2009).

    84 Brown et al. (1996); Carson and Sabol (2012).

    85 See, generally, Petersilia (2003), Travis (2005), Blumstein and Wallman (2006), Mears (2010), Spelman (2006, 2008, 2009), Garland (2013), and Gottschalk (2013).

    86 Garland (2013).

    87 Baumer and Lauritsen (2010).

    88 Mears (2010).

    89 Mears (2010).

    90 Cullen and Jonson (2012).

    91 See, for example, Blumstein and Beck (1999), Nadelmann (2004), and Mauer (2009).

    92 Provine (2007).

    93 Reaves (2010).

    94 Marvell and Moody (2006).

    95 Mears (2010:17).

    96 Pettit and Western (2004); Warren et al. (2006); Clear (2007).

    97 Travis (2005); Gottschalk (2006, 2011); Tonry (2011, 2012).

    98 Mauer (2009); Tonry (2009a); Mears (2010).

    99 Mears (2010).

    100 Mears (2010).

    101 Petersilia (2003, 2005).

    102 Maruna (2001); Nagin et al. (2009).

    103 See, generally, Forer (1994).

    Chapter 5

    1 Visher and Travis (2003, 2011).

    2 See, generally, Cullen and Jonson (2012).

    3 Rothman (1971).

    4 Durose et al. (2014).

    5 Cullen et al. (2011).

    6 Vermink et al. (2013).

    7 Nagin et al. (2009).

    8 Ekland-Olson et al. (1983).

    9 Cochran, Mears, Bales, and Stewart (2014).

    10 Mears (2001, 2004b).

    11 Lipsey and Cullen (2007).

    12 Cochran and Mears (2013).

    13 Mears and Barnes (2010).

    14 Tyler (1990); Franke et al. (2010); Steiner and Meade (2014).

    15 Steiner and Meade (2014).

    16 DeLisi (2003); Mears and Mestre (2012); Cochran, Mears, Bales, and Stewart (2014).

    17 Steiner and Meade (2014:132).

    18 Steiner and Meade (2014:133); see also Rand (2009) and Beck and Johnson (2012).

    19 DeLisi (2003); Steiner and Wooldredge (2013).

    20 Petersilia (2003); Travis (2005); see, however, Makarios and Latessa (2013).

    21 Clemmer (1940).

    22 Irwin and Cressey (1962); Johnson (1976); Harer and Steffensmeier (1996); DeLisi (2003).

    23 DeLisi (2003); Steiner and Meade (2014).

    24 See, for example, Harer and Langan (2001); Drury and DeLisi (2010); Makarios and Latessa (2013).

    25 Lahm (2008); Mears, Stewart, Siennick, and Simons (2013).

    26 Clemmer (1940); Sykes (1958).

    27 Sykes (1958).

    28 Tyler (1990); Bottoms (1999); Steiner and Meade (2014).

    29 Bottoms (1999).

    30 See, for example, Blevins et al. (2010); Felson et al. (2012).

    31 Hochstetler and DeLisi (2005); Blevins et al. (2010); Mears, Stewart, et al. (2013).

    32 See, for example, Trulson et al. (2011); Cochran, Mears, Bales, and Stewart (2014).

    33 Akers and Sellers (2012).

    34 Agnew (2005); Cochran (2012, 2014).

    35 Akers and Sellers (2012).

    36 Bushway and Apel (2012); Mears and Mestre (2012).

    37 See, for example, Clemmer (1940); Sykes (1958); Conover (2000); Rhodes (2004); Comfort (2008); Hassine (2009); Ross and Richards (2009).

    38 Lynch and Sabol (2001); Lawrence et al. (2002).

    39 Cullen and Jonson (2011).

    40 Mears, Roman, et al. (2006).

    41 Mears, Winterfield, et al. (2003).

    42 See, for example, Sherman et al. (2002); Petersilia (2003); Travis (2005); Lipsey and Cullen (2007); MacKenzie (2006, 2012); Mears (2010); Welsh and Pfeffer (2013); Latessa et al. (2014).

    43 Mears (2010).

    44 Lipsey and Cullen (2007).

    45 Cullen and Jonson (2011).

    46 Clemmer (1940).

    47 See, for example, Wilson et al. (2003).

    48 Bushway and Apel (2012).

    49 Mears, Winterfield, et al. (2003); Cullen and Jonson (2011).

    50 Mears (2010).

    51 Mitchell et al. (2007); Cullen and Jonson (2011).

    52 Farabee (2005); Mears (2008a).

    53 Hairston (1991); Adams (1992).

    54 Adams (1992); Liebling (1999); Petersilia (2003); Bales and Mears (2008); Cochran (2012); Mears, Cochran, Siennick, and Bales (2012); Cochran and Mears (2013); Listwan et al. (2013).

    55 Sykes (1958).

    56 See Maruna (2001); see, conversely, Rhodes (2004).

    57 Holt and Miller (1972); Hairston (1991); Cochran and Mears (2013).

    58 Berg and Huebner (2011).

    59 Cochran and Mears (2013).

    60 Mears, Cochran, et al. (2012); Duwe and Clark (2013).

    61 Monahan et al. (2011).

    62 Hagan and Dinovitzer (1999).

    63 Bales and Mears (2008); Cochran (2012, 2014); Duwe and Clark (2013); Mears, Cochran, Siennick, and Bales (2012); cf. Siennick et al. (2013).

    64 Cochran and Mears (2013).

    65 Cochran (2014).

    66 Liebling (1999); Jiang and Winfree (2006); Ross and Richards (2009); Cochran (2012, 2014); Listwan et al. (2013); Siennick et al. (2013).

    67 Hairston (1991); Christian (2005); Comfort (2008).

    68 See, however, Mears, Cochran, Siennick, and Bales (2012).

    69 Mumola (2000); Christian (2005); Christian et al. (2006); Comfort (2008).

    70 Steiner and Meade (2014:133).

    71 Listwan et al. (2010, 2013, 2014).

    72 Steiner and Meade (2014).

    73 Beck and Johnson (2012); Steiner and Meade (2014).

    74 Listwan et al. (2012).

    75 Burnam et al. (1988); Listwan et al. (2010, 2013).

    76 Listwan et al. (2013).

    77 Gibbons and Katzenbach (2006).

    78 Riveland (1999a); Gibbons and Katzenbach (2006); Shalev (2009); Mears (2013).

    79 See, generally, Shalev (2009); Mears (2013); Ross (2013).

    80 Haney (2003, 2008); Smith (2006).

    81 Haney (2003); Rhodes (2004); Mears and Reisig (2006); Mears and Watson (2006); Mears and Bales (2009, 2010); Ross (2013); cf. O’Keefe et al. (2013).

    82 Mears (2013).

    83 Lovell et al. (2007); Mears and Bales (2009).

    84 See, generally, Akers and Sellers (2012) and Cullen and Jonson (2012).

    85 Maruna (2001).

    86 LeBel and Maruna (2012); LeBel (2012); see, generally Braithwaite (1989).

    87 Maruna (2001); Rose and Clear (2003); Burnett and Maruna (2004); Uggen et al. (2004); LeBel et al. (2008); Visher and O’Connell (2012).

    88 Giordano et al. (2007); Visher and O’Connell (2012).

    89 LeBel et al. (2008); Mears (2010); LeBel (2012); Visher and O’Connell (2012).

    90 Travis (2005); see also Maruna (2011).

    91 Visher and O’Connell (2012).

    92 See, generally, Farabee (2005).

    93 See, generally, Lipsey and Cullen (2007).

    94 See, generally, Braithwaite (1989).

    95 See, for example, Gottschalk (2006, 2011, 2013); Spelman (2006, 2009); Nagin et al. (2009); Mears (2010); Cullen et al. (2011); Garland (2013); Nagin (2013); Cochran, Mears, and Bales (2014).

    96 See, for example, Western (2006:176–188).

    97 Travis et al. (2014).

    98 See, example, Vermink et al. (2013).

    99 See Gendreau et al. (2000); Smith et al. (2002); Villettaz et al. (2006); Nagin et al. (2009); Mears and Mestre (2012).

    100 Nagin et al. (2009).

    101 For example, Windzio (2006); Nagin et al. (2009); Mears and Barnes (2010); Cullen et al. (2011); Cobbina et al. (2012); Mears (2012b); Wolff et al. (2012); Cochran, Mears, and Bales (2014).

    102 See, for example, Bhati and Piquero (2008); Cullen et al. (2011); Durlauf and Nagin (2011).

    103 See, generally, Baird and Rosenbaum (1988); von Hirsch and Ashworth (1992); Rossi and Berk (1997).

    104 Morris and Rothman (1995).

    105 Golden (2006).

    106 See, generally, Cullen et al. (2014).

    107 Rossi and Berk (1997).

    108 See, for example, Nagin et al. (2006).

    109 Welsh and Harris (2008).

    110 Mears (2008a, 2010); Mears and Bacon (2009); Mears and Barnes (2010); Mears and Butts (2008).

    111 Tonry (1997); Petersilia (2003); Piehl and LoBuglio (2005).

    112 Mears and Bacon (2009).

    113 Mears (2010); Welsh and Pfeffer (2013).

    114 Mears, Stewart, Siennick, and Simons (2013).

    115 Nagin et al. (2009); Cullen and Jonson (2012).

    116 See, generally, Akers and Sellers (2012).

    117 See, for example, Sherman (1993).

    118 Bottoms (1999).

    119 Fagan (2010); Nagin et al. (2009); Vermink et al. (2013); Cochran, Mears, and Bales (2014).

    120 Mears (2010); Spelman (2006, 2009); Nagin and Snodgrass (2013); Cochran, Mears, and Bales (2014).

    121 Mears (2010).

    122 Mears (2008a).

    123 See, generally, Mears (2008a, 2010).

    Chapter 6

    1 Mears (2010).

    2 See, for example, Doyle and Peterson (2005), Riviere et al. (2011), White et al. (2012), Danish and Antonides (2013).

    3 Travis (2005).

    4 Maruna (2001).

    5 See, generally, Sampson (2009, 2013).

    6 Travis (2005: xxi).

    7 LeBel and Maruna (2012); Visher and O’Connell (2012).

    8 LeBel and Maruna (2012:660).

    9 Chesney-Lind and Mauer (2003); Petersilia (2003); Travis (2005); Ewald and Uggen (2012); LeBel and Maruna (2012); Visher and Travis (2012).

    10 See, generally, Roberts and Hough (2005a-b).

    11 Garland (2013).

    12 Mears and Bacon (2009).

    13 See, for example, Petersilia (2003); Travis (2005); Paternoster (2010); Visher and Travis (2012).

    14 Blumstein (1997).

    15 LeBel and Maruna (2012:660).

    16 Manza and Uggen (2006).

    17 Uggen et al. (2012:1).

    18 Petersilia (2003:105); Travis (2005:69); Pryor and Thompkins (2013:459); see, generally, Chesney-Lind and Mauer (2003) and LeBel and Maruna (2012).

    19 LeBel and Maruna (2012).

    20 LeBel and Maruna (2012).

    21 Laub and Sampson (2003); LeBel and Maruna (2012); see also Visher and O’Connell (2012).

    22 Adams (1992).

    23 La Vigne et al. (2007).

    24 LeBel and Maruna (2012).

    25 Travis et al. (2001).

    26 Travis et al. (2001); Metraux and Culhane (2004); Geller and Curtis (2011); Austin and Irwin (2012).

    27 Petersilia (2003:120).

    28 See, generally, LeBel and Maruna (2012).

    29 See, for example, Kubrin and Stewart (2006) and Wang et al. (2010).

    30 Yahner and Visher (2008); Kirk (2009).

    31 Irwin (2005); La Vigne et al. (2007); LeBel and Maruna (2012).

    32 Hattery and Smith (2010:93); emphasis in original.

    33 See, generally, Pager (2007).

    34 Petersilia (2003:113); see also Travis (2005); Bushway et al. (2007); Holzer et al. (2007).

    35 Bushway and Reuter (2002); Bushway (2011); Bushway and Apel (2012).

    36 LeBel and Maruna (2012:662).

    37 Adams (1992).

    38 Bales and Mears (2008).

    39 Mears, Cochran et al. (2012); Cochran and Mears (2013); Cochran (2014).

    40 Visher and O’Connell (2012).

    41 Hattery and Smith (2010:79).

    42 Petersilia (2003:246).

    43 Bales and Mears (2008); Yahner and Visher (2008); Visher and Travis (2012); Cochran (2014).

    44 Kubrin and Stewart (2006); LeBel and Maruna (2012).

    45 Cochran and Mears (2013).

    46 Petersilia (2003:36–37); Mumola and Karberg (2006); see, generally, Mears (2001, 2004b).

    47 LeBel and Maruna (2012).

    48 MacKenzie (2006); LeBel and Maruna (2012).

    49 Winterfield and Castro (2005).

    50 Mears (2001, 2004b); one example of an attempt to quantify the shortfall among juvenile offenders in Texas can be found in Kelly et al. (2005).

    51 Visher and Travis (2012).

    52 Petersilia (2005:125).

    53 Travis (2005).

    54 See, for example, Piehl and LoBuglio (2005); LeBel and Maruna (2012).

    55 As cited in LeBel and Maruna (2012:672); emphasis in original.

    56 Travis (2005).

    57 Petersilia (2003); Travis (2005); Western (2006); Bushway et al. (2007); Mears and Barnes (2010); Visher and Travis (2011); Ewald and Uggen (2012).

    58 Ewald and Uggen (2012); see, generally, Western (2006) and Bushway et al. (2007).

    59 Schnittker and John (2007); Massoglia (2008); Wakefield and Uggen (2010).

    60 Mears and Cochran (2012).

    61 Nagin et al. (2009); Cochran, Mears, and Bales (2014).

    62 Weiser (2011).

    63 Glaze and Maruschak (2008).

    64 Petersilia (2003); Travis (2005).

    65 Ewald and Uggen (2012).

    66 Wildeman (2014).

    67 Turanovic et al. (2012).

    68 See, generally, Johnson and Easterling (2012).

    69 Clear (2007); Nagin et al. (2009); Cochran, Mears, and Bales (2014).

    70 Ewald and Uggen (2012).

    71 Sampson (2009, 2012).

    72 DeFina and Hannon (2010).

    73 See, for example, discussions in Travis (2005), Clear (2007), and Sampson (2012).

    74 Rose and Clear (1998); DeFina and Hannon 2013).

    75 Western and Wildeman (2009:234); see also Wilson (1987); Western (2006); Western and Muller (2013).

    76 Ewald and Uggen (2012).

    77 Petersilia (2003); Unnever (2008); Western and Muller (2013); Lee et al. (2014).

    78 Abramsky (2006).

    79 Manza and Uggen (2006).

    80 Ewald and Uggen (2012:94).

    81 Spelman (2006, 2009).

    82 Clear (2007); Nagin et al. (2009); Cochran, Mears, and Bales (2014).

    83 Ridgeway (2013).

    Chapter 7

    1 Nagin et al. (2009) and Cullen and Jonson (2012) have offered useful accounts of the ways that criminological theories offer competing predictions about the effects of prison.

    2 Durose et al. (2014).

    3 See, for example, Travis (2005:33).

    4 Piquero et al. (2007); LeBel and Maruna (2012).

    5 Nate Silver (2012:149) has provided a useful and discussion of the distinctions.

    6 Langan and Levin (2002).

    7 Andrews et al. (2006); Slobogin (2012); Rhodes (2013).

    8 Latessa et al. (2014).

    9 See, for example, Andrews et al. (2006).

    10 Andrews et al. (2006:8).

    11 Andrews et al. (2006:7); emphases in original.

    12 Latessa et al. (2014).

    13 Berk and Bleich (2013); see also Mears (2004b).

    14 Clements (1996); Cullen and Gendreau (2000); Bonta (2002); Andrews et al. (2006); Latessa et al. (2014).

    15 Cullen and Gendreau (2000:145).

    16 Cullen and Gendreau (2000:145), citing Andrews (1995:37).

    17 Cullen and Gendreau (2000:145).

    18 Cullen and Gendreau (2000:147).

    19 Cullen and Gendreau (2000:147–148).

    20 Farrington and Welsh (2007:22).

    21 Berk (2012); Berk and Bleich (2013).

    22 According to Streiner and Cairney (2013:304), the ROC analysis “dates back to World War II and the merging of signal detection theory with the development of radar.” They have provided a useful historical example of the issue of trade-offs with prediction:

    When the gain of the radar set (comparable to the volume control on a radio) is at zero, no signal (in this case representing an enemy plane) is detected. Increasing the gain lets more signals in, but it also increases the amount of noise that is picked up and possibly misinterpreted as a true signal. At low levels of gain, the noise is very weak and unlikely to be falsely labelled, but at the same time, only very strong signals (very large or close planes, to continue the example) are detected and many true signals are missed. As the gain is turned up even further, weaker signals are picked up, but so is more noise (things that can seem like aircraft but are not, such as rain clouds or a flock of birds). At some point, further increases become counterproductive, in that the noise (false positives) begins to outweigh the signals (true positives). (Pp. 304–305.)

    23 Fazel et al. (2012:3).

    24 Dolan and Doyle (2000:305).

    25 Stockdale et al. (2014:121), citing Rice and Harris (1995).

    26 Rice and Harris (1995); Dolan and Doyle (2000); Stockdale et al. (2014).

    27 Vrieze and Grove (2010:20); see also Fazel et al. (2012).

    28 Kroner and Mills (2010).

    29 Kroner and Mills (2001).

    30 Fazel et al. (2012).

    31 See, for example, Kroner and Mills (2001).

    32 See Fazel et al. (2012) for discussion and review of both sets of instruments.

    33 See, for example, Kroner and Mills (2001); see, generally, Latessa et al. (2014).

    34 Gendreau et al. (1996); Mears (2004a); Latessa et al. (2014).

    35 Fazel et al. (2012:5); see also Gottfredson and Moriarty (2006) and Slobogin (2012).

    36 Andrews and Bonta (2010); Latessa et al. (2014).

    37 Fazel et al. (2012:5).

    38 One of the most comprehensive and widely cited books is Andrews and Bonta (2010). Gendreau et al.’s (1996) assessment of predictors of recidivism also has been widely cited in the risk prediction literature. See, generally, Bonta (2002); Andrews et al. (2006); Gottfredson and Moriarty (2006); Bushway and Apel (2012); Slobogin (2012); Makarios and Latessa (2013); Rhodes (2013); Ridgeway (2013).

    39 Latessa et al. (2014:39).

    40 Ritter (2013).

    41 Vrieze and Grove (2010).

    42 Mancini (2014).

    43 Mancini (2014).

    44 Hanson et al. (2003).

    45 Vrieze and Grove (2010:6).

    46 Sweeten (2012).

    47 Vrieze and Grove (2010).

    48 Berk and Bleich (2013).

    49 Mears and Cochran (2013); Mears, Cochran, and Beaver (2013).

    50 Berk (2012).

    51 Hanson et al. (2003:154).

    52 Kroner and Mills (2001:485); see also Mears and Mestre (2012).

    53 Wright and Cesar (2013).

    54 Kubrin and Stewart (2006); Mears, Wang, et al. (2008).

    55 Bushway and Apel (2012); Mears and Mestre (2012).

    56 Bushway and Apel (2012).

    57 Ridgeway (2013:546).

    58 Mears and Mestre (2012); Ridgeway (2013).

    59 Andrews et al. (2006).

    60 Berk and Bleich (2013:516).

    61 See, for example, the discussion in Gibbs (1989).

    62 Latessa et al. (2014).

    63 Andrews et al. (2006).

    64 Cf. Pew Charitable Trusts (2011).

    65 Gottfredson and Moriarty (2006:193).

    66 Andrews et al. (2006:23).

    67 Latessa et al. (2014:85).

    68 Gottfredson and Moriarty (2006:192).

    69 Latessa et al. (2014:85–101).

    70 Kroner and Mills (2001); Vrieze and Grove (2010); cf. Latessa et al. (2014).

    71 Pelissier et al. (2003); Van Voorhis et al. (2010); Cobbina et al. (2012); Mears, Cochran, and Bales (2012); Van Voorhis (2012); Chesney-Lind and Pasko (2013).

    72 See, for example, Zahn et al. (2010).

    73 Mears, Cochran, and Siennick (2013).

    74 Mears and Cochran (2013); Mears, Cochran, and Beaver (2013).

    75 See, generally, Wright and Cesar (2013).

    76 Ridgeway (2013).

    77 Latessa et al. (2014).

    78 Gottfredson and Moriarty (2006).

    79 Wooditch et al. (2014:278).

    80 Stafford and Mears (2014).

    81 Latessa et al. (2014:103–122).

    82 Sampson et al. (2013).

    83 Listwan et al. (2014).

    84 Silver (2012:61).

    85 Mears, Cochran, et al. (2011).

    86 Silver (2012:177).

    87 Forst (2004); Mears and Bacon (2009).

    88 Mears (2010).

    89 Jannetta and Horvath (2011).

    90 Jannetta and Horvath (2011:2).

    91 Jannetta and Horvath (2011:2).

    92 Gottfredson and Moriarty (2006); Rhodes (2011, 2013); Slobogin (2012); Latessa et al. (2014).

    93 Latessa et al. (2014).

    94 Cullen and Jonson (2012); Latessa et al. (2014).

    95 Nagin et al. (2009).

    Chapter 8

    1 Roberts (1992); Roberts and Stalans (1998); Cullen et al. (2000); Roberts et al. (2003); Gilliam and Iyengar (2000, 2005); Roberts and Hough (2005a-b); Unnever and Cullen (2010); Unnever (2014).

    2 Gottfredson and Hirschi (1990).

    3 See, for example, Tonry (2009b) and Gideon (2013).

    4 Farrington and Welsh (2007:96).

    5 Mears and Travis (2004).

    6 Mears (2013).

    7 Pfeiffer (2013).

    8 Cullen and Gendreau (2000); Cullen and Jonson (2012).

    9 Mears and Bacon (2009).

    10 Beck and Mumola (1999); Mears and Travis (2004); Carson and Sabol (2012).

    11 Loeber and Farrington (2012); Woolard (2012); Emeka and Walters (2013).

    12 See, generally, Loeber and Farrington (2012).

    13 Mears and Cochran (2012); Aday and Krabill (2013); Mears, Cochran, and Siennick (2013).

    14 Feld and Bishop (2012).

    15 Hirschi and Gottfredson (1993).

    16 Mears (2002); Fagan (2010).

    17 Loeber and Farrington (2012).

    18 Mears and Travis (2004).

    19 Adams (1992).

    20 See, for example, Bishop and Frazier (2000).

    21 See, for example, Farrington and Welsh (2005, 2007); MacKenzie (2006); Welsh and Farrington (2006); Lipsey and Cullen (2007); Loeber and Farrington (2012); cf. Mears, Cochran, et al. (2011).

    22 See Mears and Travis (2004) and other articles in the 2004 special issue of the journal Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice.

    23 Mears, Cochran, et al. (2011).

    24 See, for example, Greenwood and Turner (2011, 2012); Krisberg (2012); MacKenzie and Freeland (2012).

    25 Carson and Sabol (2012).

    26 Harrison and Beck (2005).

    27 Carson and Sabol (2012).

    28 Mumola and Karberg (2006); McDaniels-Wilson and Belknap (2008); Blackburn, Mullings, and Marquart (2008).

    29 Mumola (2000); Holsinger (2014).

    30 Holsinger (2014).

    31 James and Glaze (2006); Holsinger (2014).

    32 Wolff and Shi (2011).

    33 Belknap (1996).

    34 Van Voorhis et al. (2010).

    35 Coughenour (1995); Belknap (1996); Langan and Pelissier (2001); Celinska and Siegel (2010).

    36 Mears, Cochran, Siennick, and Bales (2012).

    37 Belknap (1996).

    38 Belknap (1996); Holsinger (2014).

    39 See, generally, Van Voorhis (2012) and Holsinger (2014).

    40 See, for example, Mears, Ploeger, and Warr (1998), Steffensmeier and Allan (1996), Belknap (2006).

    41 Mears, Ploeger, and Warr (1998).

    42 Salisbury and Van Voorhis (2009).

    43 Morash, Haarr, and Rucker (1994); Belknap (1996); Holsinger (2014).

    44 Salisbury and Van Voorhis (2009).

    45 See, for example, Geller et al. (2011) and Chung (2012).

    46 Clear (2007); see also Western (2006); Western and Muller (2013).

    47 Van Voorhis (2012).

    48 See, for example, Cobbina (2010); George (2010); Johnson (2012).

    49 Carson and Sabol (2012).

    50 Guerino et al. (2012); Hemmens and Stohr (2014).

    51 Bonczar (2003).

    52 See, generally, Curtin (2000); Tonry (2011, 2012); Berg and DeLisi (2006); Kubrin and Stewart (2006); Clear (2007); Washington (2008); Hipp et al. (2010); Alexander (2012); Boessen and Cauffman (2013); Mears, Stewart, et al. (2013); Stahler et al. (2013); Hemmens and Stohr (2014).

    53 Petersilia (2003); Western (2006); Bushway et al. (2007); Pettit (2012).

    54 Western (2006); Tonry (2011, 2012).

    55 McPherson et al. (2001); Mauer and Chesney-Lind (2002); Kubrin and Stewart (2006); Peterson et al. (2006); Western (2006); Sampson (2009); Peffley and Hurwitz (2010); Tonry (2011, 2012).

    56 Alba et al. (1994); Clear (2007); Western and Wildeman (2009); Western and Muller (2013).

    57 The literature is vast. See, for example, Chiricos et al. (2004); Peterson et al. (2006); Pager (2007); Wang and Mears (2010); Pettit (2012); Mears, Pickett, et al. (2013).

    58 Petersilia (2003); Travis (2005); Western (2006); Clear (2007).

    59 Tonry (2011).

    60 Butts and Mears (2001).

    61 See, for example, Kubrin and Stewart (2006); Mears, Wang, et al. (2008); Mears, Wang, and Bales (2013).

    62 Mears, Cochran, and Siennick (2013).

    63 Guerino et al. (2012).

    64 Tonry (2011).

    65 Mears, Winterfield, et al. (2003); Petersilia (2003); Travis (2005); Huebner et al. (2007).

    66 Travis (2005); Wang et al. (2010); Berg and Huebner (2011).

    67 Pager (2003); Holzer et al. (2007).

    68 Petersilia (2003).

    69 Western and Muller (2013); see also Western (2006); Clear (2007); Sampson (2009); Western and Wildeman (2009); Pettit (2012); Wildeman (2014).

    70 Petersilia (2003:28).

    71 Lynch and Sabol (2004); see also Clear (2007).

    72 Clear (2007).

    73 Lynch and Sabol (2004); Western (2006); Clear (2007); Sampson (2009); Pettit (2012).

    74 Petersilia (2003); Travis (2005).

    75 Heilbroner (1990); Riveland (1999a); Mears and Bacon (2009).

    76 See, for example, Forer (1994).

    77 Numerous accounts of such efforts can be found in publications at the Urban Institute (www.urban.org), the National Institute of Justice (www.nij.gov), the What Works in Reentry Clearinghouse (whatworks.csgjusticecenter.org), and other organizations.

    78 See, generally, Hemmens and Stohr (2014); Listwan et al. (2014).

    79 Spiegel (2007); Hemmens and Stohr (2014).

    80 Trulson et al. (2008); Hemmens and Stohr (2014).

    81 Lovell et al. (2000); Mears and Bales (2010).

    82 Mears and Bales (2010); Mears (2013).

    83 White and Gorman (2000); Wooditch et al. (2014).

    84 Compton et al. (2007).

    85 Compton et al. (2007).

    86 Mears (2001, 2004b); Mears and Aron (2003); Petersilia (2003); Lorie and Bryant (2013).

    87 Liska et al. (1999).

    88 Mears (2004b).

    89 Adams (1992); Liebling (1999); Lorie and Bryant (2013).

    90 See, generally, Gideon (2013).

    91 Hensley et al. (2013).

    92 Hensley et al. (2013).

    93 Hensley et al. (2013).

    94 Henriques et al. (2013).

    95 Henriques et al. (2013).

    96 Mears (2010).

    97 Rossman et al. (2011:5).

    98 Goldkamp (2003).

    99 Rossman et al. (2011).

    100 Mears and Cochran (2012).

    101 Clear (2007).

    102 Spelman (2006, 2008, 2009); Mears (2010).

    103 Some officials have called for just such an approach—see, for example, Forer (1994).

    104 Pollack et al. (2013).

    105 Butts and Mears (2001).

    106 Hirschi and Gottfredson (1993).

    107 Bushway and Apel (2012).

    108 Travis (2005).

    Chapter 9

    1 Sherman et al. (1997).

    2 Mears (2010).

    3 Latessa et al. (2014:93).

    4 Spelman (2006, 2008, 2009).

    5 Travis et al. (2014).

    6 Garland (2013:505).

    7 Nagin et al. (2009); Mears (2010); Cochran, Mears, and Bales (2014).

    8 Nagin et al. (2009).

    9 Cochran, Mears, and Bales (2014); Mears, Cochran, and Cullen (2014).

    10 Paternoster (2010:820).

    11 Solomon et al. (2005).

    12 Piehl and LoBuglio (2005).

    13 See, for example, Davis et al. (2003).

    14 Tonry (2004, 2008, 2011, 2012).

    15 Hagan and Dinovitzer (1999); Petersilia (2003); Travis (2005); Sugie (2012).

    16 Mears and Barnes (2010).

    17 Petersilia and Cullen (2014).

    18 Mears (2010).

    19 Welsh and Rocque (2014).

    20 Sherman (1993).

    21 Mears (2010); Welsh and Rocque (2014).

    22 Latessa et al. (2014).

    23 Welsh and Rocque (2014).

    24 See the discussions in Finckenauer (1982) and Welsh and Rocque (2014). See also Sherman (1993).

    25 Mears and Stafford (2002).

    26 Latessa et al. (2014).

    27 Wilson et al. (2005).

    28 Latessa et al. (2014).

    29 Pew Charitable Trusts (2012b); Cochran, Mears, and Bales (2014).

    30 See, for example, Sherman et al. (1997); Mears (2010).

    31 Mears, Roman, et al. (2006).

    32 Farabee (2005).

    33 Mears (2010).

    34 See, for example, Anderson (1999) and Cohen (2005).

    35 Blumstein (2013).

    36 Blumstein (2013:723).

    37 Congressional Budget Office (2007:3).

    38 See, for example, Jaruzelski et al. (2013:5). Precise estimates of investment in research and development, and in efforts to monitor and improve operations, can vary because of differences in how companies treat, for tax and other purposes, research expenditures (Chan et al. 2002).

    39 Mears (2013).

    40 La Vigne et al. (2014).

    41 Bureau of Justice Assistance (2013).

    42 Lattimore et al. (2010).

    43 Lattimore et al. (2010:262).

    44 Lattimore et al. (2010:262); see, generally, Lipsey (1998) and Weisburd et al. (2003).

    45 Lattimore et al. (2010).

    46 Many sources provide information about ways to improve prisoner reentry. Some of the ones used to create the tables for this chapter include the following: Adams (1992); Gendreau et al. (1996); Cullen and Gendreau (2000); Maruna (2001); Lawrence et al. (2002); Petersilia (2003); Farabee (2005); Travis (2005); Clear (2007); Tonry (2009b); Andrews and Bonta (2010); Lattimore et al. (2010); Mears (2010); Mears and Barnes (2010); Bushway and Apel (2012); MacKenzie (2006, 2012); Austin and Irwin (2012); Cullen and Jonson (2012); Taxman (2012); Craig et al. (2013); Gideon (2013); Green (2013); Lerman (2013); Pew Charitable Trusts (2013); Samuels et al. (2013); Schlager (2013); Welsh and Pfeffer (2013); Wright and Cesar (2013) ; Crow and Smykla (2014); Cullen et al. (2014); Latessa et al. (2014); Steiner and Meade (2014); Travis et al. (2014); Mays and Ruddell (2015). In reality, this list only scratches the surface. Numerous special issues of journals, such as volume 47 of Crime and Delinquency (2001), volume 139 of Daedalus, and volume 651 of the Annals (2014), focus on reentry as well and what can be done to improve it.

    47 Visher and O’Connell (2012).

    48 Farabee (2005).

    49 Latessa et al. (2014).

    50 Cullen (1994).

    51 See, for example, Travis (2005) and Maruna (2001, 2011).

    52 Bottoms (1999).

    53 Bushway and Apel (2012) have described a similar idea in discussing how to identify which inmates are unlikely to recidivate. A good “signal” is one that requires an individual to work hard to show (consciously or not) a change in his or her likelihood of offending.

    54 See, generally, Sparks et al. (1996) and Bottoms (1999).

    55 Morris (2002) has provided a wonderful illustration of this problem.

    56 Ross and Richards (2009); Visher and O’Connell (2012).

    57 Latessa et al. (2014).

    58 Groopman (2007).

    59 See, for example, DiIulio (1987), Sparks et al. (1996), Bottoms (1999), Morris (2002), and Cullen et al. (2014).

    60 Maruna (2001).

    61 Bushway and Apel (2012).

    62 Clear (2007).

    63 See, for example, Cochran, Mears, and Bales (2014).

    64 Mears (2010).

    65 Travis (2005:323–340).

    66 Petersilia (2003:171).

    67 Gendreau and Andrews (1989); Latessa et al. (2014).

    68 Latessa et al. (2014:64).

    69 Latessa et al. (2014:229).

    70 Parsons (2014).

    71 Bottoms (1999).

    72 Parsons (2014).

    73 Butts and Mears (2001); Mears and Travis (2004); Farrington and Welsh (2007).

    74 Travis (2005:334).

    75 Cullen and Jonson (2012:212).

    76 Meade et al. (2013); Cochran, Mears, and Bales (2014); Mears, Cochran, and Cullen (2014).

    77 MacKenzie (2006); Cullen and Jonson (2012); Latessa et al. (2014).

    78 Mears (2010).

    79 Petersilia and Cullen (2014).

    80 Skogan (2003); Innes et al. (2009); Reisig (2010).

    81 Mears (2010).

    82 Mears and Bacon (2009).

    83 Travis (2005).

    84 Petersilia (2003).

    85 Piehl and LoBuglio (2005).

    86 Piehl and LoBuglio (2005:131).

    87 Ridgeway (2013).

    88 Berk (2012).

    89 Mears (2010).

    90 Travis et al. (2014).

    91 Forst (2004).

    92 Silver (2012).

    93 Groopman (2007); Mears and Bacon (2009).

    94 Maxson (2013).

    95 La Vigne et al. (2014).

    96 Mears and Barnes (2010).

    97 Rocque et al. (2012).

    98 Kraska (2006); Wright and Cesar (2013).

    99 Ridgeway and MacDonald (2014).

    100 Lutze (2014:257).

    101 Doyle and Peterson (2005).

    102 Roman et al. (2010).

    103 Karmen (1992); Clear (2007); Felson and Pare (2008).

    104 Herman (2010).

    105 Mears (2004a, b); Cochran, Mears, and Bales (2014).

    106 Mears (2010).

    107 Mears (2010).

    108 Mears (2008a).

    109 Pew Charitable Trusts (2013).

    Chapter 10

    1 Stuntz (2011:14).

    2 Travis (2005); see also Travis et al. (2014).

    3 Stolz (2002); Travis (2005).

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