Managed Chaos reads into the resounding events of Chinese politics and economy, ending the schizophrenia that the readers have lived with. It delves deep into both elements: the economic narrative that China has sustained a near 10 percent growth rate for 30 years and the political narrative that China is an increasingly fragile state, trapped in an incomplete transition from a totalitarian to a democratic market economy. For the first time, in his reading of China, the author consolidates this paradox by inferring that the cause behind both the growth and the political discontent is the politics of China.
Chapter 3: Double Digit Growth?
Double Digit Growth?
China's growth has acquired an almost mythic quality. The most enduring of the perceptions that surround it is that of ‘double digit growth’ Although many harbour doubts in private, few observers, and scholars publicly question the official estimate, that of almost 10 per cent growth for 30 years. This is despite the fact that almost half of it comes from sources that cannot easily be identified or accounted for. Between 1978 and 1995, the unexplained component was 44 per cent of the total. This was one and a half times higher than similar estimates for Japan between 1963 and 1990 and more than twice as high as for South Korea. Ten years later, despite a slowing down of the economy ...